We're just one kick away from final, says Ferguson

Sir Alex Ferguson knows Arsenal will attack his side tonight in a way they didn't in the Champions League semi-final first leg six days ago. But with one away goal enough to destroy Arsène Wenger's "obsession" of a first European trophy, he has declared his Manchester United side are "one kick away from Rome".

Though United's failure to kill off the first leg at Old Trafford leaves Arsenal more than a scintilla of hope, it is the Londoners' failure to register an away goal which affords Ferguson optimism ahead of a match which, to his mind, carries more significance and pressure than any of the 39 previous games between these two old managerial adversaries. "Of the clashes we have had, none have reached the proportions of tomorrow night," Ferguson said. "But if we score one, Arsenal have to get three and that's an advantage. The point is we've got a lead. That's a big incentive."

The fact United have not clinched the same number of European Cups as Liverpool and other members of Europe's elite is gnawing away at Ferguson; driving him in the way that Arsenal's failure to clinch the trophy at all is firing Wenger. He insisted he has got time to catch those other superpowers. "Probably my biggest regret is we've not won it more than we have," he reflected. "We've a good history – but not the same as AC Milan, Liverpool and Bayern Munich – they've all won it four times or more. I've got long enough [to emulate them]. Whether I take long enough, I don't know."

The détente between Ferguson and Wenger reached new ground yesterday – the point where the Scot actually described his adversary as "a friend" for the first time. They head into the match with 14 wins apiece against each other since the Frenchman arrived in England 13 years ago, though only two of the outcomes between the two sides in north London over those years have produced a scoreline which, replicated tonight, would send Arsenal into the final. Both were long ago – the 3-0 win in 1998 and a 3-1 win, in 2001.

"Hopefully we will get the same again," Ferguson said of that particular statistic, though more integral to his interpretation of tonight's game was the news that Robin van Persie trained at London Colney yesterday. That, Ferguson said, suggests "he will be ready" and Arsenal will play 4-4-2, as opposed to their 4-5-1 in Manchester.

For his part, Ferguson suggested Rio Ferdinand would be fit to counter that threat, despite having missed Saturday's visit to Middlesbrough with a bruised rib, and Patrice Evra had shrugged off an ankle injury, having missed training yesterday.

But also on his mind will be the fact that Wayne Rooney, along with Evra and Carlos Tevez, will miss the final in the Italian capital on 27 May if he incurs another yellow card. The prospect of that happening on a highly charged occasion like this is a dangerous one, and Ferguson said the striker had to be mature enough to realise the threat.

"It goes without saying he knows the circumstances I don't need to spell it out, he is a mature young man and understands perfectly well." That said, the United manager expressed faith in the quality of referee Roberto Rosetti to appreciate the significance of a yellow card for Rooney.

Arsenal's attacking threat is at the forefront of Ferguson's mind. "We expect Arsenal to attack us more," he said. "We would prefer them to defend all night but we've experience of them in the attack. That's their normal way."

United learnt from the bitter experiences of European defeats to counter-attacking sides, which followed their 1999 heroics at the Nou Camp, how to play a better, more savvy defensive game in Europe, and that will serve them well.

"We lost to PSV Eindhoven away on counter-attack and we had to change our thinking," Ferguson said. "We've good consistency over the past few years."

He is demanding the same concentration levels from his defence which saw them through 1-0 in the quarter-final second leg in Porto last month and added that he does not hold any store by theories that Wenger – still awaiting this piece of silverware that he himself has collected twice – faces the greater pressure. "Expectation is something you have to live with. Fortunately I've got experience with it. You don't have aims [to win more European Cups]. It's always a bit selfish."

Perhaps his own viewing of Barcelona's 6-2 humiliation of Real Madrid three days ago has put things into perspective.

"I was afraid of [the idea of] playing against [Barcelona] on Saturday night. They were magnificent," he admitted. Even if tonight brings success, there are some mighty high hurdles on the horizon.