Pep Guardiola knows Manchester City need a little luck to live up to their Champions League billing

The better that Manchester City play the greater pressure they are under to win the Champions League, as difficult a feat as that is to pull off.

Pep Guardiola is finding himself at Manchester City in a situation he will have remembered from Bayern Munich, where for all his domestic dominance he is being judged on whether he can win a trophy that ultimately hinges on fortune, moments and details. Rather than the week-after-week high-level performance that he specialises in.

This puts Guardiola’s ultimate legacy in the hands of something he can hardly control. And as desperate as he is for his third European Cup as a coach, he admitted in Lyon on Monday night that people should not count on it. He knows if he never wins it here that City’s critics will point to their billions and say he has failed. Just as his lack of a Champions League at Bayern was described in the same terms. But Guardiola still has faith that City’s fans will not see it that way, and that for them the performances of the team are a reward in themselves, “the best success”, whether they lift the trophy in Madrid next June or not.

“For all the people who don’t love [us] too much, their argument is the money of course, if we don’t win the Champions League we have failed,” Guardiola admitted. “For the other people, especially our fans, the people who say ‘we enjoy watching our games, we are happy with what the guys are doing’, I am pretty sure that our fans don’t have regrets about what these guys are doing for the last 12, 14, 15 months, every three days. That is the best compliment, the best success a team can have.”

City are on the brink of qualifying for the last-16, and if they win in Lyon tomorrow night they will ensure that they win Group F with one game remaining. It is too early to think in detail about the knockout stage but all Guardiola wants to do is arrive in the final stages ready to compete.

“Of course we want to qualify for the [last-16], to continue that level in the Premier League, being solid away and home, and arrive in the best condition possible, with everyone fit, and compete,” he said. “OK, try it again, why not? Go to the quarter-finals, and maybe you are lucky to go forward. After that, the competition it speaks for itself. A lot of desires, a lot of wishes we can have at the end. The competition is so tough, so clinical. If you are better you are going to win, if you don’t, you are going home.”

It says a lot about City’s recent form that they arrive in Lyon in such a strong position despite losing their opening game to the French side at the Etihad Stadium. Guardiola even saw that as an opportunity, hoping it would remind people how serious this competition is, and injecting some tension into their campaign.

The problem, if that is the right word, is that the events of the last few weeks have taken away any sense of tension about City’s run. They sneaked a 2-1 win in Hoffenheim and then thumped Shakhtar Donetsk home and away. Now they only need one point here in Lyon to confirm qualification. Win and they will ensure that they win the group with one game left to play. Guardiola predicted before the Hoffenheim away game this campaign would go down to the last game, but City hosting the German side on 12 December is now likelier to be dead than alive.

If City do win on Tuesday they will also set another marker in Guardiola’s own history, making this the first time that he has won all three away games in a Champions League group stage. Given his record in this competition with Barcelona and Bayern Munich it would say something for the level of this City side if they could pull it off, while also acting as a reminder of the gap between group stage success and knockout glory.

With Bernardo Silva and Ilkay Gundogan both left at home with minor injuries, and with Kevin De Bruyne still out, Guardiola is considering throwing in Phil Foden for tomorrow’s game. The 18-year-old midfielder has only started three games this season – the Community Shield and two in the League Cup – but Guardiola insisted that he believes Foden is ready. Especially after impressive substitute appearances against Manchester United and West Ham United.

“He is definitely ready,” Guardiola said. “I had the feeling in pre-season, I was incredibly impressed. He’s more stronger, he is more conscious that he’s able to play with us. In the last game he played 20 minutes at a high level, without the ball he’s so intense. Every time he has played he has played good. When you ask I always say he’s part of the squad and he’s definitely ready.”