Champions League draw: Chelsea and Arsenal should reach quarter-finals, but Manchester City may struggle against Barcelona

England should have two quarter-finalists in the Champions League, with both Chelsea and Arsenal being given winnable French ties in yesterday’s last-16 draw. The gap between Chelsea and Paris Saint-Germain ought to have widened since they met last year, while Arsenal should have too much experience of this stage for Arsène Wenger’s old club Monaco.

The hardest draw is for Manchester City, against Barcelona, European champions of 2006, 2009 and 2011. This is another repeat but, after City scrambled their way out of the group, there will be hope that escape is possible.

After all the effort of those late wins over Bayern Munich and Roma, Manchester City have landed in the Champions League last 16 for just the second time in their history, and found that their opposition is the same.

This time last year City drew Barcelona and in the tie looked very much like a team taking their first steps at this level. At the Etihad, Barcelona won 2-0, Lionel Messi drawing a red card and penalty out of Martin Demichelis which effectively ended the tie. City fought hard in the Nou Camp, and Samir Nasri missed a good chance to take the lead, but they eventually lost that game 2-1 and the tie 4-1.

That game was a lesson for City but the direction of the two teams since suggests that it could be closer this time. After losing last March, City went on to win the Premier League title, and while their season so far has been patchy, their turnaround in the last three weeks – winning seven straight games in all competitions and qualifying from their Champions League group – suggests they have found their best form again.

Barcelona are still within four points of La Liga leaders Real Madrid but their performance in the season’s first Clasico showed a side which Luis Enrique is struggling to knit together. The front three of Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez has yet to show as much mutual understanding as the great teams of 2009 and 2011, although that is a high bar.

So Manchester City should have a better chance than they did last year, and this is one of the tightest calls in the round. In a sense that is a frustration for City, who have only played one team this year – Roma – who they had not met before. But it is also a perfect tie. Barcelona are City’s benchmark, and explains their appointments of Txiki Begiristain and Ferran Sorriano as well as their expensive new academy. If they could knock them out of the Champions League, it would be a perfect statement.

When asked last week, Jose Mourinho said that PSG would be his preferred draw for Chelsea in the last 16. “Paris would be good, because it’s easy to travel for us, for the fans,” he said. “It would be good, but we can’t decide the draw.” Maybe not, but Mourinho got precisely what he wanted.

This is a repeat tie, after the two clubs met in the quarter-final last season, but this will surely be less tight than last time. In April, PSG took advantage of some defensive mistakes to beat Chelsea 3-1 at the Parc des Princes. That left Chelsea needing a 2-0 win at Stamford Bridge, and there were just two minutes left when Demba Ba bundled the ball in. Edinson Cavani had already missed a good chance to kill the tie, and Chelsea nearly reached the final.

Chelsea, though, are far better than they were last season, as proven by their three-point lead in the Premier League. Cesc Fabregas and Diego Costa have made them far more dangerous, while the younger players seem to be more consistent.

PSG spent €50million (£40m) on David Luiz this summer but Mourinho was relaxed about letting him go, and PSG have not shown much improvement since. They started the season very slowly, drawing six of their first nine games, and while results have improved since then they are still one point behind leaders Marseille. Coach Laurent Blanc is not universally popular and there is a long-standing sense that PSG are still less than the sum of their parts.

After three years of difficult draws, Wenger can be relieved at avoiding Europe’s big beasts for once in the last 16. Arsenal drew probably the weakest of the seeds, AS Monaco, a club with a deep attachment to the Arsenal manager.

Wenger managed them at the start of his career, between 1987 and 1994, winning one French title and one cup. His Monaco team – featuring Glenn Hoddle, George Weah and Jurgen Klinsmann – were excellent and there is certainly a legitimate grievance that, were it not for the corruption associated with Marseille, they would have won more.

Monaco have been down and then up since then, having been bought by Russian potassium magnate Dmitri Rybolovlev three years ago. He has brought the club back up into the top flight and signed some world-class players – such as James Rodriguez and Radamel Falcao. Those two, though, have since left, as Monaco have been confronted by the reality of Uefa’s financial fair play regulations. Manager Claudio Ranieri also departed in the summer despite a very reputable record in the principality. So it is a younger Monaco side who are fighting in Ligue 1 this season.

Leonardo Jardim’s team won just one of their first five games but results have improved since, and they beat leaders Marseille 1-0 on Sunday. They have some dangerous young players in Yannick Ferreira Carrasco, Lucas Ocampos, Geoffrey Kondogbia and Tiemoué Bakayoko. Combined with the experience of Jeremy Toulalan, Ricardo Carvahlo, Joao Moutinho and Dimitar Berbatov they have the ability to cause Arsenal problems, even if they are not Bayern Munich.

PSG v Chelsea

Man City v Barcelona

Bayer Leverkusen v Atletico Madrid

Juventus v Borussia Dortmund

Schalke 04 v Real Madrid

Shakhtar Donetsk v Bayern Munich

Arsenal v Monaco

Basle v FC Porto

First leg matches will be played on 17/18 and 24/25 February and the return fixtures on 10/11 and 17/18 March 2015.