If Lee Carsley broke the mould, will Thomas Tuchel put it back together for the World Cup?

No pressure, Thomas. Lee Carsley hands over to Thomas Tuchel promising to give England’s next manager a comprehensive debrief on the three autumn camps but perhaps also elevating expectations. Not so much with the results – promotion in the Nations League was anticipated for a team ranked fourth in the world and who reached the final of Euro 2024 – as with his assessment of England’s prospects for the time covered by Tuchel’s 18-month deal.

Carsley’s prediction should carry more weight than most. Can England win the World Cup in 2026? “I think we are in a good position to do that,” he said. It is a comment that may be remembered if Tuchel does not triumph in North America. Alternatively, however, Carsley was just being realistic. There are around eight genuine contenders for every World Cup. England’s record across their last four major tournaments and their pool of players suggests they belong in that category.

“I think we have the talent to do it,” Carsley added. “I have been lucky now to be at the last couple of World Cups and the timing of the players being in form, physically and mentally, at the right time, picking the right squad. We have got all of the tools. We just need to play them in the order.”

This touched on some of the pivotal factors. England stumbled as much as surged to the third final in their history in 2024, with some of their premier players semi-fit and partly out of form. They felt more like a moments team than a coherent, functioning unit, rescued at times by the ability of individuals or, in contrast to some earlier tournaments, by Gareth Southgate’s capacity to make telling substitutions.

If it illustrates that part of the test for Tuchel, with his razor-sharp intelligence and tactical precision, will be to adjust his plans mid-match, another lies in the bigger calls.

Southgate felt wedded to the quartet of Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka and Phil Foden; as starters, anyway. Cole Palmer’s emergence has given England a fifth Galactico. Carsley erred against Greece by trying to cram in five attack-minded players, none of which were an actual striker. He excelled in November with Anthony Gordon and Noni Madueke offering pace and width on the flanks. They are two of his proteges from the Under-21s; persisting with each would mean omitting some of the bigger names. Would Tuchel do that?

“I think there’s competition for places,” Carsley said. “I think the best chance of us winning is, if we can, find a place [for players]. You saw the Greece game at home, I tried that. So it is a challenge. It needs work. It’s one thing you don’t get with the international camps is time. So we just have to find that balance.”

It might simplify the task if England had fewer high-class players; or at least, fewer who all want similar roles. This might seem an unenviable kind of selection dilemma.

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“A lot of the international coaches at that Uefa debrief of the tournaments I went to said that,” Carsley said. “They said ‘you’ve got a lot of good players’, as if that’s a negative thing. If they’re all in form at exactly the same time then it’s a challenge, but players do come in and out of form and it’s putting them in the team when they’re flying and resting them when they’re not.”

Which suggests he prefers to have fewer automatic choices. Certainly benching Kane in Athens marked a change of policy, even if only temporarily. Because while Carsley’s day job as the Under-21 manager has made him an evangelist for youth, arguing emerging players bring in a winning culture from successful age-group teams, the players Tuchel definitely rates tend to be more experienced; in some cases, they are out of the squad, maybe primed to return to it.

The German paid €100m for Kane, who rewarded him with 44 goals in 45 games for Bayern Munich. He also took Eric Dier to Bavaria and wanted Kyle Walker and Kieran Trippier. The latter is now retired from international football, but both right-backs will turn 36 in 2026. Meanwhile, Tuchel’s Champions League-winning full-backs at Chelsea were Reece James and Ben Chilwell. The goal in the final was set up by Mason Mount.

And if some have to reclaim fitness first, does that bode badly for some of Carsley’s kids, for Tino Livramento, Lewis Hall, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Angel Gomes and Morgan Gibbs-White? Tuchel, after all, did not even attend the Greece and Ireland games this month to watch them. The interim, however, believes his work has not been in vain. “Thomas’ pool of players has increased,” said Carsley.

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Which seems demonstrably true. And yet if World Cups are won in part by timing, of when players peak and teams gel, they can also be decided by the strength of the weakest links. Left-back has been a problem position, particularly given Luke Shaw’s injury problems, so the emergence of Hall and the added experience granted to Rico Lewis could be helpful.

England have lacked holding midfielders other than Declan Rice, so Curtis Jones’ encouraging debut may have long-term significance.

But while the spectre of Tuchel loomed large, Carsley navigated the November break with a depleted cast of players and fine results. It remains to be seen if it alters England’s future. But Carsley thinks that could involve England winning the World Cup. And that adds to the burden on Tuchel.