Euro 2022: Can Spain rediscover their power in time for England quarter-final?

“We’ve seen that they have some vulnerabilities,” the England manager Sarina Wiegman said of the team who, until a couple of weeks ago, were favourites for Euro 2022. That it is Spain standing in England’s path would normally have struck fear into the hearts of the Lionesses but, although bad luck and cruel timing has undoubtedly played its part, it is clear that Spain is not this Spain. While Wiegman remained cautious and respectful, warning that England will be facing one of the best teams in the world in the quarter-finals tonight, the circumstances have played into their hands and an opportunity now awaits.

England arrive in the knockout stages flying high on confidence. And Spain, on the surface, may still look like Spain and there remains the certainties of their play. Just like in their three group games, against England they will aim to have around 65 per cent of the possession and look to complete close to 600 passes. Many will be short, sharp and at its best Jorge Vilda’s side will tick along with tempo that few can match.

But what are certainties if there is no, well, certainty? Spain have also been locked in a battle to rediscover the assurance that saw La Roja carry a 23-match unbeaten streak into the Euros, and eliminate the doubts that have grown into their play following a start to the tournament that has not exactly gone to plan. Spain had been tipped to sweep all before them in England this summer and, indeed, many had predicted them to face the hosts at Wembley in the final. The fact that the meeting is instead taking place in Brighton and in the last eight is an indication that they drifted off course.

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The first blow came when Jenni Hermoso, whose role in the centre of Spain’s attack was so important to their style of play, was ruled out, and it was then compounded by the cruelty of losing Alexia Putellas on the eve of the tournament. The Ballon d’Or winner, and the face of the all-conquering Barcelona, was key to Spain’s hopes and it has, quite understandably, left them a shadow of what they had been expected to be.

The absence of Putellas and Hermoso has, for a start, left them without a total of 72 international goals and the wider implications of losing such a reliable source of threat and creativity has rippled around the team. Spain have attempted to play the same way but there is a fine line when it comes to possession-based football, and they have often appeared lost without the incision that both Putellas and Hermoso would have offered.

As a result, the slight drop in the intensity and accuracy of their passing has left Spain even more susceptible in transitions. Spain’s aggressive defensive line and the split positioning of centre backs Irene Paredes and Mapi Leon is all part of their high-wire act, but they were faced with an alarming number of counterattacks throughout the group stage. While they recovered to beat Finland in their opening game, the goal they conceded inside the first minute foreshadowed the gaps that could have proved so costly against Denmark.

England, in many ways, are nightmare opponents for Spain. Wiegman’s side are a pressing machine, as displayed in the 8-0 demolition of Norway, and pace on the wing in Beth Mead and Lauren Hemp is complemented by clinical finishers in either Ellen White or Alessia Russo. Paredes and Leon were given the runaround by Pernille Harder against Denmark, but England have a far wider variety of weapons and have already shown how ruthless they can be.

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But while England may be the hosts and, for now at least, the favourites, the game will be dictated to them rather than by them. England can certainly keep the ball thanks to a player of Keira Walsh’s quality but Spain will look to dominate possession, just as they did in the Arnold Clark Cup in February.

Without Putellas, there has been greater responsibility placed on Spain’s twin No 8s. Aitana Bonmati was the player of the match in Spain’s two group stage victories and while she is technically flawless, she has often appeared hesitant in the final third when Spain have needed a player to unlock the door. Mariona Caldentey has been moved back into midfield after starting the tournament on the left wing and can offer a threat with late runs into the box. Both remain the biggest danger to England, in a team that has so desperately missed a natural finisher in its forward line.

Only England have had more shots during Euro 2022 than Spain, but while Wiegman’s team scored a record-breaking 14 from 69 attempts through the group stage, Spain were kept to just four from 62. Similarly, while only Spain had more possession than England, the marked difference in their output was indicative of their respective moods through the competition so far. Spain are vulnerable now, and the fact that everyone else can see it only adds to the challenge of reasserting their authority.