England’s World Cup hinges on a defining question

Since arriving in Australia, Sarina Wiegman has stepped up work on a new system, that may not even be unveiled until the knock-out stages. It is an inherent acknowledgement that England are no longer in the strong position they were, but simultaneously something that may yet prove the winning of this World Cup.

This has been reflected in the mood of the camp in Australia, beyond the distraction over bonuses. There is certainly no lack of faith, especially in Wiegman’s ability to come up with something special. This is another benefit of a feat like the Euro 2022 victory. It banishes doubts, and fosters that immensely powerful feeling that everything will go well because the manager knows exactly what they are doing. It is why big games, as in that juncture quarter-final win over Spain, can almost seem like they will go exactly as Wiegman predicts.

There’s also the fact that, right now, the manager has one of the most talented teams in the world. For so long, this has seemed like the moment England were long building up to.

The question now is whether that moment just comes at the wrong time.

Because, for all the faith in Wiegman and the team, those close to the squad say there isn’t quite the conviction there was as in October 2022. That was when England beat defending world champions USA 2-1 at Wembley, to herald themselves as favourites for this summer and perhaps the strongest international side in the world. The defeated visiting coach, Vlatko Andanovski, was publicly complimentary and privately struck by how good the Euro 2022 winners were.

Wiegman for her part attempted to play down such excitement, knowing there was a lot of work to do until such a feat.

“You are the best team in the world when you have won the World Cup. We haven’t. We are in a good place, but there are so many good countries.”

While Wiegman was as much intending to manage the psychology of her squad, it was maybe another way she proved prophetic. The Dutch coach was exactly right in pointing to how this is perhaps the most open World Cup ever, with a quarter of the field going in with real hopes they can win it. England are meanwhile not in as good a place as they were back then.

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That can be a positive, too. There are enough examples of squads going into tournaments with everything in order only to be undone by the first moment of adversity. Tension can also bring an edge.

These are the sort of setbacks that might actually propel a surge that could again become the story of the summer. If England get on a run, and enjoy that intangible momentum that is so specific to an international tournament, it could once more be something special.

At the same time, there is a lot that could contribute to nerves.

England have first of all lost over 400 caps worth of experience since Euro 2022, with the departures of Jill Scott and Ellen White made worse by such unfortunate injuries to Leah Williamson, Beth Mead and Fran Kirby. The squad has lost assurance as well as fluency and so many unique qualities. Millie Bright isn’t currently fit but should make the first game, with the hope she grows through the group stage. A few players are not at their sharpest, especially in midfield and out wide.

This has fostered some of the bigger selection decisions for Wiegman, before she even gets to the overall system. She needs to decide who starts in the second centre-half role and up front. Through that, she also needs to solve the recent struggle for goals.

Underlying all of this is a different group dynamic to Euro 2022. There are now quite a few different social groups in the squad, especially with the introduction of so many young players to replace stalwarts.

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This isn’t necessarily a bad thing and can evolve once the squad spend a few days together in camp. Little things can become big unifying forces. One of those last summer was how the entire squad made a point of not packing before leaving St George’s Park for knock-out games. It was to deepen that belief they would not be going home yet.

One unifying factor this time, however, might ironically and ominously be a negative. The entire squad remain hugely frustrated that the issue of bonus payments has not been resolved. A potential “civil war” has been avoided through the players taking the unprecedented step to release a statement on the eve of the tournament, but that very description illustrates how a problem remains. The debate just hangs there. It is the sort of issue that will undeniably be seen as a huge factor if England underperform.

There are more than a few layers to it, too. The Football Association haven’t wanted to talk about the situation since they don’t want to be in a position where they are essentially briefing against their own national heroes, especially in a scenario where something even more historic can be achieved. Much of this also comes from the immense popularity of the Lionesses. With Fifa’s ground-breaking stipulation guaranteeing 60 per cent of all prize money to every individual player, the England squad are only asking for the same deal that Australia and USA have, with performance-related bonuses on top. This is how an elite team is organised, and that status is precisely what the FA take pride in and now earn so much from.

The players do not feel it is befitting an elite team for the federation to seek bonus discussions after an event. The common line has been that this would never be even considered for the men, and shows how much women still have to fight.

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It has created a cloud, as well as one more complication for Wiegman during the tournament. One of the manager’s many strengths, however, is ensuring focus. Wiegman is an expert at managing the mentality of a group, especially in the distinctive self-contained atmosphere of a tournament. She did it ahead of Euro 2022 by bringing the group together and then getting them to pair off with teammates they didn’t know so well. Wiegman has ideas on how to manage this, that have been aided by the players being willing to park it to make the best of the football.

Within the team, the lack of certainty up front can also become a strength. It means Wiegman has different options for different challenges in Alessio Russo or Rachel Daly. Georgia Stanway has meanwhile grown into a leader, that brilliant goal against Spain proving a key step in her own career.

The amount of youth - especially in Lauren James - can also introduce a vitality that might otherwise have been missing and shouldn’t be overlooked. One reason that teams so rarely win successive tournaments is because even a year is a long time in football. The dynamic can drastically change, and it’s very easy for a team to become stale without even realising. That can’t be said about England now, and the squad have the group stage to grow together.

Wiegman does need to introduce more sharpness, though. Esme Morgan did well when she came on in the warm-up against Canada, and playing her alongside Bright at centre-back will allow Alex Greenwood to go to left-back, while facilitating more flow to the football.

It isn’t quite to the levels of putting Williamson at centre-half in the game before the Euros, but then that also points to how the potential reveal of a new system so late need not be a concern.

It can just click. It will probably have to. England are on the tougher side of the draw if they expectedly claim the group first-place, and that will likely bring a last-16 tie against hosts Australia or a robust Canada. The latter forced a 0-0 draw in a warm-up through a frustrating approach England are going to counter again and again.

Wiegman’s team are probably going to have to battle through the majority of the eight sides who believe they can win it, if they are to become the fourth side to do a double of European Championship and then World Cup. The last was Germany, as far back as 2007. That emphasises how much has changed in the women’s game, and there is a sense that even tournaments of a decade ago don’t really offer much guidance or instruction to now because of how much has evolved.

Wiegman continues to evolve England, as well as her own ability as a world-class coach. She of course has the job because she came so close to that double in the last World Cup, bringing the Netherlands to the final. They lost to USA. This is the standard. England know they can get there. The grand question is whether enough has aligned to ensure they get there over the next month.