Rashford, Grealish or Gordon: Which England forwards will miss out on Euro 2024 squad?

England face two friendly fixtures during the March international break - and these will likely serve as the last opportunity for some players to impress and prove they deserve a spot in the squad for Euro 2024.

While we’ve been tracking the entire group all along and detailing who is almost on the plane, the particular group of players who look to have the biggest battle going on in the final months of the season is among Gareth Southgate’s forwards: how many he’ll take and which ones earn a ticket.

With squads back to 23 for the European Championship, it effectively means two players for each position and an extra goalkeeper. With the Three Lions usually set up 4-3-3 these days, it means six players selected as forwards unless the manager sacrifices depth in another area of the pitch to choose a seventh.

Even then, there were at least nine called up this month who could be classified as forward options, with one or two others on the fringes or in previous squads who could still be under consideration. It all means at least a couple of attackers are going to be left disappointed - and maybe one or two surprises, too.

Ivan Toney and Ollie Watkins are fighting to be Harry Kane’s No9 backup, while the likes of James Maddison, Marcus Rashford, Cole Palmer, Phil Foden, Jarrod Bowen and Anthony Gordon are all in the current squad as potential wide support options of differing kinds - with Jack Grealish and now Bukayo Saka both out.

Here, the Independent’s sports writers make their pick below who Southgate should take a leave behind - join the conversation in the comments section and make your choices for the Euros.

Jack Rathborn: I think Southgate will target a fifth centre-back or a fourth full-back to ensure a back five is an option, with eight defenders in total, while retaining Trent Alexander-Arnold as primarily a midfield option. With six in midfield, that leaves just six places in attack and Bukayo Saka, Phil Foden, Harry Kane and a back-up striker (likely Ollie Watkins) are certainties. Cole Palmer has form, mentality, versatility and bolsters England's chances at penalties, so he's almost at the gate, too.

That leaves one place left and unless Southgate is willing to use Watkins from the left at times, Rashford's speed there trumps Grealish's creative edge on the ball, while James Maddison offers a similar option to further dent the Man City star’s chances. That means Grealish misses out.

Karl Matchett: As with above, Saka, Foden and Kane are the nailed-on trio. I’d be going with Palmer and Watkins due to great seasons and massive productivity, as my first two “second in command” picks. There’s also scope for Watkins to feature from the left if needed, or in tandem centrally with Kane - you couldn’t really see that with Ivan Toney, who is more similar to the captain. Kane also rarely leaves the pitch.

I’m doubtful about Southgate taking fewer defenders so with only one spot left in attack, Grealish and Gordon are immediately out for me: one hasn’t been fit, the other has been good but not consistently at the top level and there’s no real reason to gamble with him. Bowen is more unfortunate because he’s a right-or-central option, and England have plenty of left-footers - he just won’t play. So it’s Rashford or Maddison for the left-sided alternative, and I’d opt for the latter and take another central midfielder, be it Kobbie Mainoo or someone else. Maddison as a schemer and set-piece option is a better choice than the pace of Rashford for me, who has had a terrible campaign and scored just seven goals for England in the last four-and-a-half years - Raheem Sterling has more than that and hasn’t played since 2022. Southgate will take him, all the same.

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Luke Baker: As England are struggling to find even one fully fit, capable left-back, I think Southgate picks just seven defenders (three full-backs and four centre-backs) in the knowledge that ‘centre-back’ Joe Gomez and ‘midfielder’ Trent Alexander-Arnold can cover as full-backs in a pinch. That frees up a spot to take seven forwards and, as above, Kane, Saka and Foden are guaranteed a place in the squad – probably in the starting line-up. Watkins is a good bet (pun intended) to go ahead of Toney as the backup No 9, leaving three spots available.

I believe Maddison will go as Jude Bellingham’s backup as a CM (if he goes at all), so the Spurs man can be discounted from this discussion. Palmer’s superb season and versatility means he’ll get the nod, while if Rashford can show even flashes of his best form over the next few months, he’ll be on the plane as a Southgate stalwart and proven commodity. That leaves Bowen, Grealish and Gordon to scrap for the remaining spot. Southgate will be desperate to take Grealish as someone he trusts, has proven ability to unlock games and a positive presence around camp, so if he can get fit and play even a few games for Man City then he’ll be included. I think he’ll manage that but, if not, Bowen is the next man up.

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Harry Latham-Coyle: It is really a problem of plenty for Southgate, which must be a welcome position given some of the barrel bottoms that previous England managers have had to scrape at times. I agree that Kane, Saka and Foden are certainties, and Watkins deserves to be rewarded for his consistency this season. We know trust matters hugely to the England boss (see Henderson, J and Maguire, H), which counts in the favour of Rashford, whose ability to cover a central striking role and provide something different cutting in off the left could well earn him a spot.

Maddison is also in my midfield mix, but I’m still not sure there will be space for both Cole Palmer and Jack Grealish. The Chelsea man is clearly a coming force but would probably profile best on the right of England’s front three, where Saka and Foden would be ahead in the pecking order. An on-form Grealish, though, could easily push to start on the left — I think Southgate settles on him for that final forward spot.