in focus

How a reborn Champions League became a surprise success

The last two winners of Europe’s most prestigious club football competition sit precariously in the table before the final round of fixtures and tonight’s do or die matches are what UEFA have been building up to

Wednesday 29 January 2025 05:26 EST
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By the time some of the Champions League squads got into their dressing rooms after the penultimate night of group-stage action, many players didn’t really want to look at the table. The majority just wanted to know what they need from the last game.

Many squads, like the most recent champions at 25th-placed Manchester City and 16th-placed Real Madrid, wouldn’t have expected to be anything close to the position they currently find themselves in. They could now be involved in nights that go down in European Cup history, if not for reasons they'd like.

Wednesday is what Uefa have long been building to and, for their part, it’s fair to say some of the blocks have had much more sparkle than expected. It’s not just that there are four direct play-offs, in essence, before the actual play-off round, on the last night of the group phase. There are multiple other games with something on the line, too, but it is also the way some gloriously dramatic games have now been set this up.

You only have to look at Benfica 4-5 Barcelona or Paris Saint-Germain 4-2 Manchester City in the last week alone. This is what Uefa promised, and what the competition has delivered. Even if the sheer quantity of matches has still meant a lot of games have been largely predictable content in the manner expected, there’s been more than enough tense theatre elsewhere to turn to.

The new format has broadly worked and justified itself. The exact stakes of the table may still be vague, and almost confusing to look at, but that chaos will only serve the competition on this final night. The final table, where top eight is everything and top 24 at least something, is going to change an awful lot. A lot of different stadiums are suddenly going to draw attention.

On that, it is genuinely good for the competition that all of Atalanta, Aston Villa, Feyenoord, Lille and Brest are up there with a chance of the top eight. Celtic and PSV Eindhoven admirably making the play-offs also illustrates the entire point of all this. Meanwhile, Club Brugge have the chance to eliminate City.

The English champions are one of at least six major clubs and recent finalists - including Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Juventus, PSG and Madrid - to endure real trouble.

There is one caveat amid all this mea culpa revisionism. It shouldn’t be overlooked that there has been an element of self-fulfilment in all this, as well as a genuinely serious point.

One major reason there has been such unpredictability to all of this has been because the wealthiest clubs have had an unexpected number of fitness and injury issues, as has been most visible at City. The principal reason for that has been the most intense calendar the modern game has ever seen, where the crowbarring of two extra European games in January has disrupted everything else.

Manchester City are in peril of being knocked out of Europe after a 4-2 loss at PSG
Manchester City are in peril of being knocked out of Europe after a 4-2 loss at PSG (PA Wire)

In other words, the expanded Champions League has caused the problems that have inadvertently made the idea justifiable. More squad issues, more drama.

The expansion has actually proven a leveller, although it should be stressed this is not a sustainable solution to the major modern problem of extreme financial disparity in football.

That shouldn’t be glossed over amid the glamour of the final night. In essence, the format works if the wealthiest clubs suffer collapses.

That is what has marked this apart. Results have been much less predictable than recent seasons have suggested.

The format has been a factor in that. The final night is set to be the great beneficiary and a gala event.

Real Madrid's front three were to the fore against RB Salzburg
Real Madrid's front three were to the fore against RB Salzburg (Getty Images)

There is something else worth stressing here. This might not just be historically special in terms of drama. It is going to be unlike anything we’ve seen in football before.

Some of the TV stations are already wondering how they are going to fit an ever-changing table with 18 simultaneous games on the screen at once. Phrases are being thrown around planning rooms like “Matchday Mayhem”. Red buttons may be crucial.

That’s another important element to this. It is going to be appointment viewing, and a true live TV event.

Someone at a stadium - or especially a TV crew with a single live pick - might suddenly find themselves at the wrong game. Except, most of the matches will end up the right game for even some of the night. There are that many variables. The most direct ‘play-offs’ - Brest v Real Madrid, Lille v Feyenoord, Aston Villa v Celtic, Stuttgart v PSG - are likely to command attention all night. Some that are a bit more layered in terms of motivation, like Juventus v Benfica or Barcelona v Atalanta, might suddenly come alive too.

There are still games billed as big that will end up predictable. Bayern need a win but does anyone doubt they thrash 35th-place Slovan Bratislava? The greater intrigue will be if that expected win will be enough to get them into the top eight, which is where the real chaos will come. The table is going to change a lot. As many as five games at once could mean something for any given team.

Raphinha celebrates scoring for Barcelona in a thrilling 5-4 victory
Raphinha celebrates scoring for Barcelona in a thrilling 5-4 victory (AFP via Getty Images)

As for the one game that really stands out given the height of the stakes, the presumption is that City will defeat Club Brugge at home to avoid outright elimination.

Well, with the way this group stage has gone, that can’t really be said with the same confidence that would have been asserted in September.

Things have changed, not least perceptions of this group stage. The final night may well scramble emotions. We won't know where to look.

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