Bournemouth vs Newcastle prediction: Expect goals and late ones at that

Bournemouth welcome Newcastle United to the south coast on Sunday (2pm kick-off, Sky Sports Main Event) looking for their first league win of the new campaign.

The Cherries started the season with a point after a late goal secured them a 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest. Newcastle on the other hand opened their campaign with a 1-0 win over newly promoted Southampton, but that only tells half of the story.

They played more than an hour of the match with 10 men after Fabien Schar was sent off on 28 minutes, had just one shot on target - the goal by Joelinton - and only had 22 per cent possession.

The Cherries on the other hand managed four shots on target, as they began life without Dominic Solanke who left the club to join Tottenham. They were also without their record signing Evanilson. The Brazilian striker was a late arrival into the club, as he joined from Porto in a club record £40.2m deal, missing the deadline to make his debut at the City Ground - but he is expected to feature on Sunday, so could he start repaying the fee immediately?

Betting sites are favouring the Magpies to edge the contest, but there could be value in backing Bournemouth, who defeated former boss Eddie Howe on his side’s last visit to the Vitality Stadium.

Despite the results last weekend, we are expecting goals in this one, not least because eight of Newcastle’s last 10 away games have seen at least four goals scored, overall there was an average of 4.4 goals per game.

Their away games over the whole of last season were entertaining and saw 76 goals in total, 36 for and 40 against which was the most since Chelsea’s record in the 2019/20 season - so we’re not expecting a drab goalless draw.

Newcastle have also conceded in their last 11 games versus Bournemouth, including four in two games last season - a 2-2 draw at St James’ Park and a 2-0 defeat at the Vitality Stadium, but three of those goals were scored by Solanke.

Add to that the fact that Bournemouth traditionally struggle in the first month of the season. In fact, they have not won in any of their eight matches in August, scoring just three goals and conceding 23.

Last season it took them 10 games to secure their first league win, finally coming at home to Burnley on 28 October when goals from Antoine Semenyo and Philip Billing secured a 2-1 win.

We’re being bold with our first prediction in anticipation of a goal fest on the south coast, taking over 4.5 goals at 31/10 on football betting sites.

Bournemouth v Newcastle prediction 1: Over 4.5 goals - 31/10 TalkSportBet

Despite expecting goals history says a draw is a likely result between these two sides, although meeting so early in the season means anything can happen as players are still getting to know each other and styles of play.

One person who should know what to expect when he gets to Bournemouth is Newcastle boss Howe, who spent more than 20 years at the club, including two spells as manager.

But he has yet to beat his former club in four attempts, overseeing three draws and one defeat so far. In fact, along with Luton and Manchester City, the Cherries are the only other team he has failed to beat.

The two sides have only met 19 times in total and seven meetings have ended all square, while Newcastle have won seven and Bournemouth five.

Bournemouth played out nine draws in the league last season and six of those came at home and based on their usual form in August they would probably settle for another point on Sunday.

We’re predicting a high-scoring draw after looking at the odds on betting apps but to hedge our first bet we’ll go below 4.5 goals.

Bournemouth v Newcastle prediction 2: 2-2 draw - 12/1 Bet365

Cherries fans might not have had too much to cheer at times last season, not least the first two months, but they knew not to leave early, or they would have missed most of their goals.

19 of their last 25 goals have all come in the second half of games, and more than 65 per cent of all goals under manager Andoni Iraola - or 36 of 55 have come after the break.

Whether it’s fitness levels, a change of approach or a complete fluke, Newcastle will need to be on their toes this weekend right until the final whistle.

They will also have to do without Schar after his red card, he will miss the next three games through suspension.

Another defender they will have to do without is Kieran Trippier with the England full-back said to be seeking a move away from the club before the transfer window closes.

He was an unused substitute last weekend and is now unlikely to feature for the club again. It’s not only his defensive abilities they will miss though. As well as 47 clean sheets he has scored six goals and provided 35 assists.

A potentially inexperienced Newcastle backline could be exposed, especially late in the game. A price of 15/2 with the best betting sites for Semenyo, who scored Bournemouth’s equaliser against Forest, catches our eye for our final prediction.

Bournemouth v Newcastle prediction 3: Antoine Semenyo to score last - 15/2 BoyleSports

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