Arsenal vs Liverpool prediction: Gunners absentees give Reds the edge

All eyes will be on the Emirates Stadium on Sunday when Arsenal face Liverpool looking to get back to winning ways and close the gap on the league leaders (4.30pm, Sky Sports Main Event).

Defeat against Bournemouth last time out leaves the Gunners four points behind the table-topping Reds and Premier League betting sites have eased the north London side out to 13/5 to win the title in the aftermath of the loss.

Arsenal still sit ahead of Liverpool in the title market on most betting sites, although only just, and the visitors certainly have more wiggle room than Mikel Arteta’s troops, who can ill afford to fall further behind the Reds, despite it still being October.

The key for the home side will be keeping 11 players on the pitch. William Saliba became the third Arsenal player to be sent off this season at Bournemouth and the Gunners have yet to win a game when down to 10 men, drawing two and losing one.

Liverpool took full advantage of Arsenal slipping up last weekend as they beat Chelsea 2-1 at Anfield in what was dubbed their first real test of the season. Another victory on Sunday would surely see them pegged as Manchester City’s main title rivals, at the Gunners’ expense.

Since Arne Slot’s arrival, they have gone about their business quietly and a 1-0 shock defeat at home to Nottingham Forest is their only dropped points so far across eight games.

Both sides go into the game off the back of 1-0 wins in Europe this week, Arsenal beating Shakhtar Donetsk thanks to an own goal by goalkeeper Dmytro Riznyk, while Darwin Nunez netted the decider in Liverpool’s success over RB Leipzig in Germany.

Both sides will be without key players so it will be interesting to see whose squad can cope better. Football betting sites are leaning towards Arsenal more successfully dealing with their issues, making them 6/4 favourites for the game, despite their list of absentees featuring more expected starters than Liverpool’s.

Captain Martin Odegaard and the suspended Saliba are definitely unavailable and it’s likely Bukayo Saka, Jurrien Timber, Riccardo Calafiori and Takehiro Tomiyasu will also miss out.

Those absences largely affect Arsenal’s defence and there’s no doubt they’ll miss the presence of Saliba. Before his red card, the Frenchman had played every single minute in the Premier League for the Gunners since the start of last season. Since making his debut in August 2022, he’s missed just 11 Premier League matches, with Arsenal having a 74 per cent win rate and conceding on average 0.8 goals per game with him in the team compared to a 45 per cent win rate and 1.6 goals conceded per game without him.

Liverpool will again be without goalkeeper Alisson and midfielder Harvey Elliott, while Diogo Jota, Conor Bradley and Federico Chiesa are all doubts.

Alisson and Jota will be missed but Liverpool have shown enough this season to suggest they can cope without them and it may pay to side with the Anfield outfit.

If Liverpool do win the game, it will be their second-best start to a Premier League season ever after nine games with 24 points. The only other occasion in which they’ve won 24 or more points at that stage was in 2019-20, when they last won the title.

It’s likely to be a cagey affair with the sides fairly evenly matched – they have even scored the same number of goals so far with 15 but Slot’s side have been better defensively conceding just three compared to Arsenal’s eight.

Liverpool haven’t failed to score in any of their last 17 league meetings with Arsenal since a 0-0 draw in August 2015 and one goal may be enough for the visitors, if their defence can hold firm once more.

Arsenal vs Liverpool prediction 1: Liverpool to win to nil – 9/2 Bet365

Mohamed Salah has scored 10 goals in 14 games against Arsenal for Chelsea and Liverpool and has scored in his last two matches against them.

He already has seven from 12 games in all competitions, but in the Premier League, it’s five goals and five assists from his eight games.

Betting apps show him at 14/1 to score first and last in this game and that may offer a bit of value as Liverpool have won two of their last three matches 1-0.

Arsenal vs Liverpool prediction 2: Mohamed Salah to score first and last goal – 14/1 William Hill

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