The tactical conundrum behind Arsenal’s quest to end absurd Man City streak

On Thursday evening, Arsenal were still hoping that Bukayo Saka would feature on Sunday, but Mikel Arteta has had to start drawing up alternative plans. And that could serve his side well in a pivotal clash with the potential to define the title race.

It is no bad thing to have Pep Guardiola second-guessing you, and the Manchester City manager can take that to third-, fourth- or even beyond fifth-guessing. The Catalan will be rolling everything around in his mind, having pored over recent footage.

Most of the footage of recent Arsenal-City games, mind, has been all too clear. They’ve all gone one way, to an almost farcical degree.

City have beaten Arsenal for 12 successive Premier League games. That run would be bad enough if it was over a bottom-half side, but it is virtually unprecedented among financial heavyweights or the old “big six”.

Arsenal have admittedly had many iterations throughout what was a transformative and often difficult period in their history, but you have to go back to a Shkodran Mustafi header in April 2017 for the last time they even claimed a point off City. And you have to go back to December 2015, and goals from Theo Walcott and Olivier Giroud, for Arsenal’s last victory in the fixture.

That is what Arteta is trying to overcome, as he makes constant appeals to only consider the present and the future. It is not just about revenge for last season, a quick recovery after a shock defeat to RC Lens or even reasserting Arsenal’s title credentials after a rare City defeat.

It will be about overcoming the knowledge that the champions almost always beat them. That can be a huge psychological factor for a team, creating a fatalism, even subconsciously.

Arteta can at least point to one big victory in the FA Cup as well as this summer’s shoot-out win in the Community Shield, but the fact that the Premier League represents their great ambition means there’s a different feel to it. It’s something they need to address, especially if they are to actually beat City in the league. It is one of those psychological hurdles that needs to be overcome, just as City faced with Manchester United after the Abu Dhabi takeover.

The Community Shield may still influence this, mind, because of how Guardiola did something so different in that game. He decided to properly bait the press, in the same way that Roberto De Zerbi has made this his great innovation. Arsenal didn’t bite, and came through the game, but it has almost set a kind of tactical arms race in motion; where last season’s top two keep trading significant moves that could affect the course of this year.

Arsenal beat City to Declan Rice, City attempted to undercut Arsenal’s entire approach by baiting the press. Arsenal didn’t respond but they are trying to add variety to last season’s tactics, meaning they didn’t start the campaign as well as the champions. City then lost Rodri to a red card and unexpectedly lost a game, allowing Arsenal back in.

That could now be offset with the absence of Saka, as both managers attempt to figure out what happens next.

Perhaps Arsenal are “due”, but that could have been said years ago.

Will Guardiola attempt to bait Arsenal again? Does Arteta prepare for that, or something different altogether?

Both of these managers could send each other down all manner of avenues with second guesses.

And how it all ends may depend on just who starts.