Football: Leeds poised to have a say in title race

EVER SINCE cracks began appearing in Aston Villa's brave new world, conventional wisdom has insisted that Manchester United, Arsenal and Chelsea were in a league of their own at the top of the Premiership. Despite the protestations of David O'Leary, Leeds United could be about to blow a small but significant hole in the theory.

For a relative managerial novice, O'Leary is a master in the art of lowering expectations. After every match, the Irishman recites his mantra about how jaded his young players are and how he must bring in pounds 20m worth of new blood. Which may be true, yet all the time Leeds have been piling on the points - 15 from five games going into today's visit from Derby.

Victory over Derby would lift Leeds into the Champions' League qualifying zone, at least until Chelsea play at Villa Park tomorrow. Games between the clubs tended to be high-scoring affairs, even when George Graham was in charge at Elland Road. Leeds came from 3-0 down to win the equivalent fixture last season 4-3, rubbed it in by winning the return 5-0 and drew 2-2 at Derby last autumn.

Even if the likes of Jonathon Woodgate, Harry Kewell and Alan Smith (suspended today after eight bookings) succumb to mental and physical weariness in the final quarter of the campaign, Leeds look likely to play a major part in the destination of the League. They play at Chelsea early next month before receiving United and Arsenal in the space of a fortnight.

Villa also take on the top trio, with the venues reversed, starting at home to Chelsea. News of the London club's tiring trek to and from Norway, which culminated in their plane being re-routed to Gatwick seconds before they were due to land at Heathrow, was the first glad tidings John Gregory has had since his one-time pacesetters embarked on their run of one point from seven matches.

Gianluca Vialli, perhaps indulging in a little Italian blarney himself, conceded the championship following Chelsea's defeat by West Ham. It is too early for that, especially when one recalls the unstoppable surge which swept Arsenal to the summit 12 months ago.

The desire of the respective managers to lumber their rivals with the psychological burden of being favourites is a spring ritual. Alex Ferguson has a degree in kidology, although United would have to suffer a severe case of post-European fatigue at home to Everton to allow Arsenal to narrow the gap. Until last month, United's 4-1 win over tomorrow's visitors meant they had scored more goals at Goodison Park this season than Everton.

United's pairing with Juventus is an energy-draining distraction from domestic affairs if ever there was one. Arsenal, however, have their own concerns ahead of Coventry's arrival, namely Emmanuel Petit's reported disaffection with English football after his latest sending-off. With the Sky Blues mounting their annual escape bid and the Double-winners also desperate for points, the Frenchman faces a test of timing and temperament.

The bottom three are all at home, and, if Nottingham Forest's fate is not already sealed, failure to make Middlesbrough their first City Ground victims since August would surely leave them beyond salvation.

For Blackburn, injury- ravaged and throwing money at the transfer market, the decline in Wimbledon's form gives the Dons an untypical aura of vulnerability. The same cannot be said of Southampton's visitors, Sheffield Wednesday, who have reserved some of their best displays for away fixtures.