Football: Holders to reap new alliance of art and labour

IT is not just their wonderful mastery of a football, the goals that are so sweet on the eye or the compelling beat of the Samba that draws me to Brazil as the likely World Cup winners. Watch them closely against Scotland tomorrow and take note how hard they work to win the ball back.

Over the years so many Brazilian sides have set high standards in terms of flair and technique that it is an aspect of their game that has been overlooked. No other nation puts so much effort into regaining possession, they are physically strong and they don't lack aggression either.

That so many of the team now play club football in Europe only enhances their chances of retaining the crown in five week's time. They have become even more attuned to what is required to beat the European sides and they are brimming over with players of the highest quality.

Ronaldo has done better than I anticipated in Serie A. He only needs a split second to score and if I had to name a star of the tournament in advance he would be the man. But Brazil have so many other shining lights: Roberto Carlos and his explosive free-kicks on the left, Aldair at the back and Taffarel, who is a solid, experienced goalkeeper, a position where you might expect the Brazilians to be weak. Then there's Denilson, a wonderful ball player who operates in an old-fashioned inside left position.

You cannot ignore Germany, who are an extremely experienced group and are tournament-honed. Take no notice of talk that they are over the hill - if you look around the top European club sides there are many players over the age of 30, all at the top of their professions, all physically fit. Argentina are a lovely mixture of young and old and, like Brazil, a lot of their players are now based in Europe.

They also possess a consistent goalscorer in Gabriel Batistuta. In fact all the leading sides have someone who can finish off chances and that is one reason why I am downgrading Spain's prospects. I know they put four past Northern Ireland the other night, but scoring goals was their big failing at Euro 96 and I fear the same problem might befall them this time round.

You would have to rate the Netherlands' chances highly if they prove a cohesive unit. For worthy outsiders I would pick out Yugoslavia and Croatia although there are question marks about both regarding temperament.

If England can get off to a flyer we will be difficult to beat because we are so well-organised defensively. To go through the qualification without conceding a goal in the away games was a remarkable feat and that, allied to our bulldog spirit, should stand us in good stead. If we can reach the semi-finals it would be a wonderful World Cup for us because along the way it will have meant we have faced, and beaten, some very good sides.

I don't think it really matters in which order the games come. In Spain in 1982 we were nervous of facing the French in our first match but Bryan Robson grabbed that goal almost from the kick-off. It proved the springboard to carry England forward.

Against Tunisia it is important we impose our character on them from the start. They will feel they have a chance but they will also feel inferior, and if we get hold of the game and demoralise them they should not be able to hold England.

It slightly surprises me that Glenn Hoddle has not shown his full-strength side in the warm-up games, but I believe he was trying to give every chance to those players over whom there remained a doubt.

I would expect him to start with David Beckham and Graeme Le Saux in the wing-back positions. There is an argument for using Beckham more centrally, but unless some decent crosses are put over for Alan Shearer one of England's strengths will be nullified.

It would not surprise me to see Paul Scholes fill the vacancy created by Paul Gascoigne's omission although Steve McManaman and Paul Merson also possess the quality to play there. I'm a great admirer of Scholes - he's a thinking footballer and at this level it becomes a game of chess with your opponent. You have to out-suss your opposite number and Scholes is very good at doing that.

Michael Owen will have a major role to play in the squad, but Hoddle will start with Shearer and Teddy Sheringham as his first-choice strikers. In the middle of defence it is any three from four. Tony Adams and Gareth Southgate are assured of their places, and with the World Cup about playing balls into strikers' feet that should help Gary Neville win the vote for the third spot ahead of Sol Campbell.