World Twenty20: Minnows try to break into exclusive tier of T20 top 10

India will enter the sixth World Twenty20 tournament as the top side in the ICC rankings. For once, the arcane nature of the table does not lie. It would be a surprise if the side led by MS Dhoni did not claim a second title on 3 April.

Of course, anything can happen in T20 (and probably will) but India tick all the boxes and then some. Since the end of the fifth edition, in Bangladesh in 2014, they have played 16 matches (the number shows that T20 at international level is not truly taken seriously). The biggest obstacle to India’s eventual triumph would seem to be that no host has yet won and indeed only one, Sri Lanka, has reached the final.

But for now the event, which begins in Nagpur today, is not about India and the other leading nations but which countries have the opportunity to join them. As in 2014, the ICC has split the competition into two distinct parts. It may or it may not ensure that there are fewer one-sided matches, but it undoubtedly continues the them-and-us state which has always marked international cricket. In the next frenetic week, eight nations will compete in two groups of four for the right to join the big boys.

The winners of each pool will go through to the Super 10, an extension of the Super Sixes that were part of previous ICC limited-overs tournaments and, even at that number, were pushing their luck in terms of the Sporting Trades Descriptions Act. The clear favourites in the Minor Nations T20, according to the rankings, are Afghanistan and Bangladesh, respectively ninth and 10th. It may not be that straightforward. Afghanistan have never been defeated by either Scotland or Zimbabwe in T20 – winning six and four matches respectively – but they have lost twice to Hong Kong in the last year.

Zimbabwe, resources seemingly in perpetual decline, have been further affected by the loss of three members of their squad in their final training camp. The most grievous may be that of the leg-spinner, Graeme Cremer, who has reached No 5 in the T20 bowling world ratings.

The opening matches today are crucial because there is so little time for regrouping. Zimbabwe should prevail against Hong Kong, despite their injuries and a week in which they lost badly to a local invitation XI but then defeated Ireland by six wickets. Scotland have left nothing to chance in their preparation but they must play above themselves to beat Afghanistan.

Ireland are arguably in the tougher pool. To progress, it seems that they will have to defeat the favourites, Bangladesh, who confounded expectations by reaching the Asia Cup final on Sunday. The Irish begin with an apparently less arduous assignment tomorrow against Oman, who are making their inaugural appearance at an ICC event.

This tournament is crucial to Ireland’s prospects of knocking down barriers at the ICC and making it understand that there is a place for other nations to join the party. The best thing for the advance of the so-called globalisation of cricket would be a spot of giant-killing, though it has not helped in the past. Ireland could do with following Netherlands’ victory against England in the last tournament with something equally outrageous, beginning with Bangladesh on Friday. If they proceed, they will avoid England in the Super 10 stage.

All the previous World T20s have provided a feast of attacking cricket – and this should be no different. By April, the format’s grip on the sport should have tightened.

GROUP A

Bangladesh

No longer the easy touch they were –their place in the Asia Cup final on Sunday was not down to chance. They lost only two of their five matches, both to India, which was also not down to chance.

They have acquired much nous by playing plenty of matches and have retained a nucleus of experienced players such as Shakib Al Hasan, Musfiqur Rahium and the captain, Mashrafe Mortaza. But their presence has been buttressed by others of attacking instincts.

Knowledge on how to bowl and when in subcontinental conditions may help. There is still an occasional tendency to be cowed by opponents, not least India, whom they would have to face again in the main draw.

Player to watch Sabbir Rahman

Chances Big

Ireland

The progress of Ireland, no strangers to big tournament play, has been admirable. This tournament may be the last hurrah for some of their old guard, though they may have their eyes on the Champions Trophy in England next year.

William Porterfield has been a surprisingly resilient captain, who has led them through virtually the whole of the Twenty20 era. This is his fifth World T20, as it is for Kevin O’Brien and Gary Wilson. Boyd Rankin returns after his unfortunate sojourn with England.

Ireland have provided more than their share of shocks in ICC events – defeating Pakistan and, even more sensationally, England in the World Cup – and will not be overawed by the size of their task here.

Player to watch Kevin O’Brien (with bat and ball)

Chances Fighting

Netherlands

They are for ever imprinted on England’s soul and it will be a source of some succour to Eoin Morgan’s side that they cannot meet their nemesis until the semi-finals, which may be too late for both. Netherlands have had their ups and downs but the victory against England in the last World T20, which followed their win at Lord’s in the 2009 World T20, simply means that they can never be taken lightly. Ably led by Peter Borren, they have shown they can beat anyone on their day, though they have suffered recent defeats to Scotland and Afghanistan.

Player to watch Stephan Myburgh

Chances Slim

Oman

It remains astonishing that they have made it this far, but since their unanticipated success in the qualifying tournament last summer they have continued to defy expectations. Their defeat of Scotland in a warm-up match last week suggests that they are capable of creating waves before inevitable elimination.

Player to watch Zeeshan Maqsood

Chances Low

GROUP B

Afghanistan

Part of the cricketing landscape now, though their presence should never be taken for granted. Their story remains one to inspire teams in all sports, built as they have been – indeed, as the entire sport in their country has been – out of conflict.

They have never played a home game and, given the continued desperate plight of their country, they may never do so. Capable of remarkable deeds, they can sometimes fold in a heap. Made some impression in the recent Asia Cup but opening defeat to the United Arab Emirates was costly.

Player to watch Dawlat Zadrab

Chances Fair

Hong Kong

Since acquitting themselves well in the World T20 two years ago, when they beat the hosts Bangladesh, they have become slicker, despite losing their last four T20s. Like so many of the “lesser” nations, they look capable of springing surprises if matters go their way.

The beauty of T20 is that they do not have to go your way for too long. Coached by Simon Cook, Hong Kong can be a threat to all teams in the group. It is expecting a lot for them to qualify but if they were to see off Zimbabwe in the match that opens the competition, anything is possible.

Player to watch Babar Hayat

Chances Threatening

Scotland

Cricket has probably never been healthier in Scotland. It will perhaps never take off nationwide, but its traditional pockets are burgeoning and there is an obvious will to make progress.

This sort of exposure can only help and their determination to play a game for the 21st century is a major asset. They field like demons. In the end, of course, they are not quite good enough and their bowling, in particular, could be mauled.

Player to watch Kyle Coetzer

Chances Small

Zimbabwe

It is still risible in many respects, probably in all, that they remain full members of the ICC. If their standard of play ever merited it, that has not been the case for 10 years. Yet it is a club from which no one is ever expelled and until that changes, with expansion the most acceptable proposition, the game’s governing body will be frowned upon. That cricket in the country continues to be played at any level is to be commended in some ways. It is in spite of the organisation, not because of it.

They still possess the odd stellar player, though the loss of three squad members is bound to have an effect. They managed a warm-up win against Ireland, which will not harm their prospects. But the opener is vital to the cause.

Player to watch Hamilton Masakadza

Chances Possible