Trevor Bayliss’s mixed England legacy will ultimately be defined by the Ashes and the World Cup

England’s first overseas tour under Trevor Bayliss was against Pakistan in the United Arab Emirates in late 2015. It ended in an underwhelming defeat characterised by selection headaches at the top of the order, injuries to key bowlers, uncertainty over the wicket-keeping position and a penchant for alarming batting collapses. Four years on, it’s tempting to wonder what, if anything, has changed.

Certainly Bayliss’s bank balance, which has swelled by around £1.5m in that time. And there have been some thrills along the way: Ben Stokes in Cape Town, Stuart Broad in Johannesburg, some of the nail-biters in Sri Lanka last autumn. But as Bayliss ends his final overseas tour, having completed the full set of ICC World Test Championship nations, it’s fair to say most of the thrills have belonged to the opposition. Defeat to the West Indies leaves him with an overseas record of won two series, drawn one (against Bangladesh) and lost five. Of the 27 Tests England have played overseas under Bayliss, they have won seven, drawn five and lost 15.

It’s not a great record, but nor is it as bad as it looks. Globally, it’s around mid-table: below the likes of Australia, Pakistan, New Zealand and India (the only team in the world to win more than they lose away from home), but fractionally better than Sri Lanka and South Africa, and miles better than the West Indies and Bangladesh. That, more or less, is where England are right now away from home: somewhere on the quivering tightrope between not bad and quite bad.

There is a reasonable debate to be had about the quality available to Bayliss in that time. A total of 36 players used suggests there has been no shortage of experimentation, and in particular the revolving door of opening batsmen (nine) and spin bowlers (eight) hints at England’s areas of chronic weakness. Yet many of the players we like to think of as England’s core have underperformed overseas too. Jos Buttler averages 31 with the bat, Moeen 23 with the bat and 42 with the ball, Chris Woakes 62 with the ball. Joe Root has made four centuries but not passed 124. Overseas wins require gargantuan efforts, epic performances and collective excellence. For England, those have simply been too sporadic.

There have been some near misses too. That first Test in Abu Dhabi, when England came agonisingly close to a remarkable victory, coming up 25 runs short when bad light set in. New Zealand’s desperate rearguard in Christchurch. And how might the 2017-18 Ashes have gone had James Vince not been run out on 83 on the first afternoon? But there have also been too many surrenders, too many comedy collapses, too many horrible bowling days against the likes of Karun Nair or Mitchell Marsh or Jason Holder.

Has there been discernible progress? Certainly England look better equipped to succeed in Asia, having followed a 4-0 drubbing in India with last year’s whitewash of Sri Lanka, in which Bayliss’s local knowledge (as their former coach) played in instrumental role. “Going to the subcontinent and playing spin was a big talking point, not just for England out other Western teams,” Bayliss said. “Sri Lanka might be the way ahead.” They tour Sri Lanka again in March 2020, and India in early 2021, which should tell us whether England have finally conquered their long-standing phobia of spin.

Yet while England have struggled in Asia, they’ve struggled almost everywhere else, too: on the hard batting tracks of Australia, in the swinging conditions of New Zealand, on the fast bowling paradises of the Caribbean. More often it’s been the bowlers who have struggled, England often looking bereft in hot conditions when the ball is old. Conditions this winter have not been conducive to reverse swing, but England’s inability to get the Kookaburra moving during the last Ashes was a major concern.

As for the batting, we’re pretty much where we were four years ago, minus Alastair Cook. “I think we’re playing the best team we’ve got,” Bayliss argued. “Some have taken a bit of time to be comfortable playing at this level. That shows in some of our performances. The guys trying to nail those places down are working their backsides off to do well, but it’s taken a bit longer than they would like. Supporters of English cricket want to have 11 exceptional cricketers. But it’s taking time.”

And for Bayliss, time is running out. There have been some stunning performances over his tenure: a home Ashes, the remarkable transformation of the one-day international side, wins over South Africa home and away, a 4-1 defeat of India, the agonising near-miss of the 2016 World Twenty20 final. But as the coach of an overseas Test side, Bayliss has largely presided over stasis: a custodian rather than a reformer, bequeathing an England side with many of the same strengths and weaknesses he inherited. He knows, as do we all, that it is what happens at home, over the next seven months, that will ultimately define his legacy.