England see life after the talismen

It may be premature to suggest that the Ashes have already turned to dust, but the chances of England setting them alight have already receded. That was the immediate consensus after the announcement last week that Darren Gough's dodgy right knee would force him to miss the rest of the season and the ICC Champions' Trophy series in Sri Lanka.

The general view was then expanded: if the Dazzler's injury, which has already been subjected to three bouts of surgery, was not fit now, it would be an immense risk to select him for a long tour of Australia which begins in October. And without their talismanic veteran fast bowler the series would be that much tougher. Which is simply too tough.

There is some credence to this, but before anybody starts becoming too starry-eyed and full of longing it is also worth remembering the last Test match that Gough played for England. He took 1 for 113 in 29 overs. In that series as a whole he had 17 wickets at a whopping 38.64. Boy, did the batsmen target him. The batsmen, of course, were Australia's finest. They can recognise a talisman a mile away.

England have now played 11 Test matches without the Yorkshireman. They have not quite forgotten him but they have become accustomed to his not being around, larger than life, in the dressing room. The indications are that they too recognise it might be terminal. As the coach, Duncan Fletcher, said: "The medical experts have told us that Darren has an ongoing knee complaint and that, in common with other professional sportsmen who have experienced similar problems, surgery is not guaranteed to completely cure it."

Sounds like a valedictory statement, does it not? It prompts thoughts of Brisbane in November. There might still be two squads to select this summer against India, but the players who will comprise the starting XI in the First Test against Australia are already beginning to concentrate minds. The likely make-up of the squad itself has already been buffeted by a long list of incapacitation this summer.

While it must be accepted that Gough will no longer lead the attack, the news of his erstwhile new-ball partner, Andrew Caddick, was much better. Caddick, who broke down with a side strain earlier in the summer, made his return for Somerset last week. He was immediately effective. Taking Championship wickets for Caddick is second nature.

He is the best bowler in England and deserves to tour Australia for the first time. He should have been at least once before. However, his last Ashes figures were worse than Gough's. In five matches he took 15 wickets which cost nearly 50 runs each. This is what Australians do to bowlers who are not talismen.

Caddick and Matthew Hoggard are likely to be the opening pair. But this time they will have the support of raw pace. Belatedly, and only because of the casualty list, the selectors have suddenly awarded caps to Simon Jones and Steve Harmison. Raw but distinctly fast, or at least in Jones's case. Harmison so far on a slow swinger at Trent Bridge has been simply raw.

They will struggle to bowl out Australia but there is possibly room for them both to make the trip. Perhaps they could be rotated. It might help them to stay fit. Alex Tudor will also go on tour presumably, but the other seamers in the team may come from Andrew Flintoff and Craig White.

The batsmen in Brisbane will come from the batsmen at Trent Bridge plus Marcus Trescothick. One can presume this from the selectors' continuing references to continuity, sticking by their chosen men and looking at the averages. There is a good deal of inconsistent twaddle in this. To wit, if they are talking about sticking by their chosen men, whither Usman Afzaal now? And if they look at the top of the averages, near the top sit Nick Knight and Mark Ramprakash.

But they will not go much beyond those in Nottingham. These included Trescothick, incidentally, who came up to show off his thumb. He was in perky, upbeat mood. We must hope that he is also still in the form of his life when he holds a bat again. It remains intriguing to see what will happen if Robert Key makes a success of things.

The batting order is not likely to include Graham Thorpe. Once, not long ago, his omission would have been as unthinkable as that of Gough. But Thorpe's desperately sad marital difficulties have badly affected his outlook on cricket. He is little nearer to resolving his family circumstances, and Australia will not be the best place to complete the process. His mind cannot be on home when it should be on the little urn. Home is much more important.

It will be a difficult party to pick. For one reason or another, England have got themselves into a bit of a mess. It is the last thing they wanted to do considering what is in store. They did not play well against Australia last year, partly because of injuries, and you can sense something similar happening.

Of course, Gough may make a miracle recovery, return revitalised and show the old enemy the way home at the Gabba. But there was something plaintive in his voice: "I know I can come back from this and at least now I have 11 weeks to concentrate on getting myself ready to have one last crack at the Australians in the Ashes this winter." It is always welcome if those who have filled our days with joy retire on their terms rather than the surgeons', but it does not invariably happen.

Possible England XI to play Australia in Brisbane (7-11 Nov): Trescothick, Vaughan, Butcher, Hussain, Crawley, Stewart, Flintoff, Giles, Caddick, Jones, Hoggard.