England sweaty yet satisfied as they edge closer to winning line

The rise of statistics available in mainstream cricket circles has meant those pontificated on behind closed doors are even more nuanced. The one England's selectors have put the most faith in when selecting the Test side has been the expected average of batsmen.

To put it simply, it is a measure that looks at specifics within a player’s first-class record: factoring whether runs were made in high or slow scoring matches, the quality of the bowling attacks they were scored against and other such caveats. Weightings are applied accordingly and, at the other end the machine spits out a number that should accurately translate to a player's worth on the international stage.

The theory is sound, but the reality has not quite revealed itself. England’s batting line-up has spent the last couple of years looking like a collection of “what ifs”, even in victory. Old wives tales from top to bottom, some true, others false, many more uncertain. “Chewing gum stays in your stomach for seven years”, “eating your crusts gives you chest hair”, “Joe Denly at first drop”. All three fitting into those brackets, though which depends entirely on you.

As England moved away from separate squads for all three formats, they tried to tailor a plan that would ensure white ball expertise were not just incorporated into their methodology but neither a hindrance. So when they supplemented their middle order with quick scorers, they required certainty at the top of the innings to ensure that flashy middle order would not regularly be exposed to a new ball and fresh bowlers. Ultimately: some guarantee of a steady base to allow those lower down to play their natural, expansive games.

There have been a handful of instances where both have done their bit: Jos Buttler’s 80 at Headingley in 2018 helped England jump to an unlikely 363 against Pakistan to set-up an innings win; without Denly’s 50 at the same ground last summer, which took almost four hours, Stokes might have had to survive more than double of the 12 overs he did at the end of day three. We all know what happened on day four.

But as England declared on 391 to give South Africa an unlikely target of 438 for victory in the second Test, the numbers were no longer theoretical.

Dom Sibley’s maiden Test hundred, completed in the morning, was brought up with a hard sweep off his 269th ball, and remained for 42 more, taking himself to 133, before being called in by Root. Some welcome red ink, too, that now sees his average jump to 39.66.

The crucial part of his graft came on day three: 85 runs picked up at his own pace. And while Root was the first to benefit from Sibley’s grind, pocketing a glitzy half-century before being dismissed in the final session, it was Ben Stokes who came through with the limited-overs cherry, whipped cream and whisky chaser.

While Sibley was admiring the scenery, Stokes was trying to take it out. The ground he tried to redecorate four years ago was getting a familiar sense of deja-vu when he took just 46 balls to move to 72.

As England’s lead ticked over 300, the big screen showed clips of the 11 sixes from his 258. The man himself was was 38 from 26 at the time, having taken one run off his first seven balls. The first maximum was a picture-perfect straight drive that sent Dwayne Pretorious towards the corporate boxes at the Wynberg End. The first four, the very next delivery, was switch-slapped over the two standing slips. The next over, he put Keshav Maharaj into the Barmy Army support at midwicket.

From there, fielders retreated whenever he was in sight. And though he was eventually caught from his 47th ball, trying to blaze an 11th boundary – a hopeful fourth six – the damage had been done. The perfect cameo, from the perfect platform: the plus-350 lead achieved (356 when he walked off) while Sibley at the other end continued to defend, nudge and kick out of the rough.

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Buttler’s brace of sixes were two further blows to an already mangled South African attack whose overnight struggles with illness may have had them empathising with the opposition’s issues in the first Test. Faf du Plessis decided against taking the new ball, perhaps to slow England’s progress, perhaps because Anrich Nortje started off the field and Kagiso Rabada's evident discomfort. His mood did not improve when Stokes, on 38, top-edged between Quinton de Kock and fine leg, with eventually the keeper taking charge with a flying forward dive that still fell well short.

They’ll be more restful with 56 overs and 126 runs ticked off. The remaining 90 and 312 respectively will, you’d think, house the eight more chances for England. And it was quite neat that some dovetailing of new tricks and old dog to prise the two achieved on Monday afternoon. A first wicket for one, a 583rd for the other.

Denly’s leg spin – an extra-curricular activity on his CV but a hobby in reality – made use of Dean Elgar’s unfamiliarity against such deliveries at this level. The left-handed opener, one of their finest occupiers of the crease, has now faced just 113 balls of wrist spin from a right-hander in 107 Test innings. And, for the first time, he fell to it: Denly finding a feather of an edge through to Buttler for the first breakthrough at the end of the 29th over. A contested one breakthrough, mind: Elgar reviewing immediately, seeing the faintest blur and trudging off as slowly as unpunishably possible.

James Anderson’s then removed Zubayr Hamza 25.2 overs later, just as hope of another wicket seemed lost, even with Stokes putting in an incredible shift of seven overs which tested the Hamza’s outside edge with swing and nerve with short stuff. Anderson, though, was able to provide his own usual cross-examination and create a low chance to Buttler to send England to stumps sweaty yet satisfied.

It was not all England’s way, though, and Pieter Malan’s maiden half-century showcased the patience South Africa will need to bring on Tuesday. Faf du Plessis has played in many a successful rearguard and the pitch has not been better for batting than it is right now. Maybe one in the eye for four-day Tests, but certainly the strongest argument for the glory of five days.