Despite having a worse record, Broad will be the chosen one

What a grand occasion is in prospect at Lord's on Thursday. It is, albeit loosely, the 2,000th Test match of all and the 100th between England and India. Sachin Tendulkar, one of the greatest players of this or any other age, has the opportunity to become the first player to score a hundred international hundreds.

For England, before the party begins, there are more prosaic matters to consider. They must decide on their team. The expected squad of 12 that was announced yesterday suggests that the final place will be between two bowlers, Stuart Broad and Tim Bresnan.

This, rather than significant milestones, will dominate discussion in the next two or three days. Doubtless, England will leave their choice until the morning of the match (they would not want to give their opponents the jump on them) and perhaps whoever is omitted will dash to join his county in a Championship match a day late.

If domestic duty is ordained, it is likely that Bresnan will be making the journey up to Leeds for a Roses match that has almost none of its former lustre and that Broad will be spared a much shorter trip down the A3 to Southampton.

Broad is both the player in possession and something of a golden boy of the selectors. The observations of all the men who matter – embracing the coach, Andy Flower, the chairman of selectors, Geoff Miller, and the captain, Andrew Strauss – indicate that they are prepared to back him to regain an ability to take wickets.

Bresnan, one of the heroes of the Ashes, has impressed in England's one-day team since his return from injury, though he was erratic for Yorkshire last week. To pick him now would be to give him the first two, probably three, matches in the series.

The contest between the pair is given added spice because of the contrast in their characters: Broad, blond and cherubic of looks, son of a Test batsman and a former public schoolboy; Bresnan, granite-hard lad from Pontefract with sideburns to match.

Miller came as close as he dare to spelling it out yesterday. "Following our successful Test and ODI series against Sri Lanka we're pleased to be able to include Tim Bresnan in the Test squad after his excellent return from a calf muscle injury," he said. "Tim adds further bite to our pace attack along with James Anderson, Chris Tremlett and Stuart Broad, who has greatly benefited from getting overs and wickets under his belt for Nottinghamshire during the week."

Long-term students of the obscure language of Millerese, sometimes thought to be an offshoot of Nadsat, were yesterday interpreting this as a nod towards Broad. Both Flower and Strauss have talked Broad up.

But anybody watching Broad lately can see that he is not at ease with himself. He knows he is a bowler out of form. His tetchiness, not necessarily always an undesirable attribute, has been accompanied by a desperation to take wickets.

In the series against Sri Lanka he frequently bowled too short. There seem to be mixed messages about what England expect him to be – the so-called enforcer peppering opponents or a line and length merchant, which is always eventually the best way.

It is clear that Broad is not taking enough wickets compared to the other fast bowlers who have appeared. His most dramatic intervention in a Test match was at The Oval in 2009 when his four wickets in five overs, three of them in nine balls, turned the series. He finished with 5 for 37, the third and most recent occasion on which he had a five-wicket haul.

Since then Broad has gone along much as in his whole Test career. He has taken 43 wickets at 36.95 runs each, a wicket every 75 balls. This is far and away the least effective of the quintet of seamers who are at the top of the pecking order.

In the same period, Jimmy Anderson has 79 wickets at 24.24, a wicket every 52 balls. Chris Tremlett, who has become an essential part of the operation in six months, has 32 wickets in six matches at 23.38 and is taking a wicket every 45 balls.

Bresnan, who was brought belatedly but pertinently into the Ashes has taken 22 wickets in his last five matches at 27.33, a wicket every 59 balls. (It took him until his 25th over in Tests to take his first wicket). And there is Steve Finn, dropped from the squad yesterday but who has a remarkable record of simply getting wickets – 50 in 12 matches at 26.92 and one every 42 balls.

Dress it up how England like, and no doubt Broad is capable of roughing up opponents with a menacing short ball, those figures make him the least effective of his peers. There comes a point when England have to be prepared to make a tough call.

They did so last winter when Bresnan took over from Finn and was immediately productive. He has sustained control. Where India are concerned this summer, mistakes in selection will be sharply punished.

The Lord's pitch, likely to be the least favourable of the series to England, who want pace and carry, may determine the final call on Thursday morning.

Although it is being billed as the 2,000th Test, that list includes the highly contentious match between the Rest of the World and Australia in 2005, a not a proper Test match by any measure, except according to the International Cricket Council. Bresnan should make Headingley by around 2pm.

Bressie v Broady: the Yorkshire lad should edge it

Batting

Broad's superlative 169 at Lord's against Pakistan last year will endure through the ages. Bresnan almost acquired a Test century of his own in the less legendary Test surroundings of Dhaka last year. He has a slightly better career average but Broad's lordliness at Lord's means he edges this.

Bresnan 6, Broad 7

Bowling

When England talk about their strength in depth, it is not guff. They have some authentic performers. But Broad is out of form, Bresnan is in it. Perhaps Broad should not have been rushed back so quickly after his injury travails but the feeling is that he still needs more cricket.

Bresnan 8, Broad 7

Fielding

Bresnan, strong as an ox, backs himself anywhere. Broad's mind sometimes appears to stray (a sign of his form?) which makes his remonstrations after others' fielding lapses less acceptable.

Bresnan 8, Broad 7

Frame of mind

Broad will protest that he is ready for this – he had a five-wicket haul for Nottinghamshire last week against Somerset. But like Bresnan (ever drolly pragmatic) for Yorkshire at Scarborough, he was varied. Omitting Broad now might be better for Broad and the team.

Bresnan 8, Broad 7

Total: Bresnan 30, Broad 28

Probable teams

England

A J Strauss (capt), A N Cook, I J L Trott, K P Pietersen, I R Bell, E J G Morgan, M J Prior (wk), S C J Broad, G P Swann, J M Anderson, C T Tremlett.

India

M S Dhoni (capt, wk), G Gambhir, A Mukund, R S Dravid, S R Tendulkar, V V S Laxman, S K Raina, Harbhajan Singh, Zaheer Khan, S Sreesanth, I Sharma.

Tour dates

Thursday-25 July First Test (Lord's)

29 July-2 August Second Test (Trent Bridge)

10-14 August Third Test (Edgbaston)

18-22 August Fourth Test (The Oval)

31 August T20 (Old Trafford)

3-16 September ODI series

Broad's numbers don't add up

The England fast bowlers' statistics since Stuart Broad's last five-wicket haul, at The Oval against Australia in 2009

Mat O Maid R W Av SR

S C J Broad 15 536.4 120 1,589 43 36.95 74.88

J M Anderson 17 681.3 172 1,915 79 24.24 51.76

C T Tremlett 6 238.3 59 748 32 23.38 44.72

T T Bresnan 5 215.6 65 610 22 27.33 58.91