Caddick out to exploit Australia's weak points

It is a truism of one-day cricket that, on the day, any team can beat another. This is one reason for suggesting that England might overcome Australia in the finals of the VB Series that start here tomorrow. It is not part of a long list.

Eleven matches, spread over four years, have gone the same way. Few of them have been close and when England have built a platform for victory they have invariably managed to demolish it. The Ashes look a doddle for Nasser Hussain's side by comparison.

In this tournament alone the tourists have spurned two golden opportunities. At Hobart 11 days ago they had reached 165 without loss, chasing 272 to win, but fell away irrevocably, hardly daring to believe what they were on the verge of achieving.

Then, in Adelaide last weekend, they were confronted with an Australian side disrupted by injury, rests and suspension.

The gap in inexperience, of which England have made much, was closed. But they batted badly and were bowled out by five bowlers with a total of 48 one-day caps between them. Given that 30 is supposed to be the number when a player begins to have a clue what is going on, this was a sensational performance by one side and a dismal one by the other.

The return of Ricky Ponting, Matthew Hayden and Andy Bichel to Australia's ranks tomorrow merely heightens their hold over England. The whispered possibility of Shane Warne coming back from injury makes things much worse. That still leaves Glenn McGrath, Jason Gillespie and the banned Darren Lehmann on the sidelines. That is some septet of players they have been lacking recently.

But it should not be forgotten that England have also been bereft. This tour has been transformed into a litany of injury which has led to disarray. Yesterday, it was announced that Ashley Giles will rejoin the squad in Melbourne for tomorrow's match and presumably will play. Andrew Flintoff will be in Sydney for the second final.

This was good news but it was a further example of half-baked planning by England. Only two days earlier both players, having returned from injury, had virtually been written off until the World Cup. England were desperate to avoid criticism if anything else went wrong. But the need is great. Giles and Flintoff have come through long bowling spells for the National Academy XI. This could be their time. It could be England's time if you cross your fingers and pray hard enough. Australia can be beaten. They have demonstrated a definite vulnerability lately.

Some players are said to be tired but it is a fatigue almost certainly exacerbated by lack of form. That has also been reflected in their misbehaviour: shouting expletives when decisions have gone against them, smashing dressing-room doors, uttering racial comments. These are the antics of bullies and bullies invariably have weaknesses ready to be exposed.

Andrew Caddick, England's senior bowler, who has been in magnificent form lately, said: "If everything goes well we've got a very good chance, batting well, bowling well and fielding well. But it seems throughout this tour that we have to do all three disciplines at 100 per cent. And the luck tends to be on their side all the time. When they've needed a wicket they've got it, when they've been looking for a partnership it's arrived. But they are beatable."

Caddick repeated that he is likely to retire from the international game after the next English summer, when he will be 35. He wants to plan for the future without the game and is thinking of returning to New Zealand, where he was born. But his sustained good form is essential if Australia are to be defeated this week.

"I don't think I bowled that well in Sydney," he said. "On a scale of one to 10 I probably bowled six. In the last three one-day games I've probably reached eight. I've bowled all right, I wouldn't say I've been great but I've done all right."

Caddick was doing himself a slight disservice. His last three one-day innings, a total of 30 overs, have yielded only 97 runs. Better fielding would have reduced the total. On his own scale he has been at nine.

But Caddick embodies England's continuing difficulties with Australia. For all he says that they can be beaten, for all he probably knows it, he still somehow cannot quite bring himself to believe it, cannot enter an open door for fear of what he may find. But he has to contain and confine the top of the order and hope that the young men in support, especially the admirable Jimmy Anderson, follow his example.

"They're young, that's what they are, they've got a lot of work to do, they're getting a taste of what's ahead," he said. "But potentially, they're very good. I do believe that the lads of 24 should be protected until the age of 23 or 24 while their bodies are still developing but once they reach that age they should be bowled into the ground." Thus spoke the new Fred Trueman.

England continue to mutter about inexperience and the difficulty of batting six, seven and eight in the order. If their top four fail to fire, it will not matter what happens further down. It will not be easy and nor should it be. But on the way Australia can be defeated.