Anabatic has National appeal

You do not need to be a politician to know that most statistics can cut both ways, but this afternoon's Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse provides a particularly good example. British-trained horses have won three of the last 11 Irish Nationals, a respectable strike-rate of more than 25 per cent. Count them up since 1928 though and the total is - still three, and according to your bias you can argue that the raiders have either a tolerably good or a truly dreadful record.

The odds against the British record improving drifted significantly yesterday when both Suny Bay, the ante-post favourite, and Tartan Tyrant were withdrawn because of the unsuitably fast ground (Wylde Hide and The Crazy Bishop will be missing for the same reason).

"The ground is too fast and the forecast is not in his favour," Charlie Brooks, Suny Bay's trainer, said yesterday. "We were really hoping to run, but we shall keep him in training in case there is a wet spring." The Scottish National at Ayr on 20 April is a possible desination, as it is for Tartan Tyrant.

Suny Bay would have been the fourth British-trained favourite for this race in the last five years, but this record at least may be upheld with Cool Dawn, runner-up in the Foxhunters' Chase at Cheltenham, now heading most bookies' lists. Cool Dawn has achieved much in hunter chases despite somewhat limited assistance from the saddle, and with Conor O'Dwyer now replacing the Hon Miss Dido Harding, his chance is considerably improved.

The step up to top-class handicap company under Rules is one which very few hunters manage easily, however, a fact which is not reflected in Cool Dawn's skinny price. The only other British runner with a chance is Jodami, the 1992 Gold Cup winner, but on his more recent form he surely has too much weight to carry today.

Several of the home team are also easily ignored, not least Son Of War, who ran a circuit and a half at Aintree just nine days ago, and Another Excuse, the Midlands National winner, who will not appreciate today's faster ground. Flashing Steel, last year's winner, has yet to find his best form this season, and while he always runs well at Fairyhouse, is now getting a little old to beat such a competitive field under top weight.

Charlie Swan could have ridden almost any horse he fancied today, so his decision to partner Go Go Gallant, from the Imperial Call stable of Fergie Sutherland, must be respected. At the latest odds, though, the one to catch the eye is ANABATIC (nap 3.55).

Very lightly raced, he has clearly been laid out for today's contest, should relish the trip and must go close off 10st 4lb. Take the 14-1 on offer with William Hill this morning.

The traditional Easter puzzle on this side of the Irish Sea is the Rosebery Handicap at Kempton, with a maximum field of 20 of whom no fewer than 14 are making their seasonal debut. While he has not run on the Flat since winning at Doncaster last autumn, however, Eurolink The Rebel (next best 3.40) has been kept fit over hurdles, and it may be significant that he is the only horse Micky Hammond has dispatched to Sunbury from Middleham in North Yorkshire.

The remainder of the Kempton card may be best watched, in particular the Magnolia Stakes in which Lucky Di and Easy Listening, who both showed promise early last season before misfortune intervened, make their four- year-old debuts.

At Chepstow, Debutante Days (2.30) can make up for two recent disappointments in the Welsh Champion Hurdle, while the competitive Wetherby Handicap Chase should fall to Toogood To Be True (3.45).