UN inspectors wait in vain for ticket to Iraq

For all of America's bluster about inaction at the United Nations, there was never much chance that a long-awaited resolution on Iraq was going to be passed this weekend. America has other things on its mind, all of them domestic in nature.

Distraction number one: the US Secretary of State, Colin Powell, who has played a critical role throughout the whole tortured process, had a daughter to marry off yesterday. Second, the White House would rather wait until after Tuesday's mid-term elections for a vote at the UN.

There are signs that the gulf between the US and Britain on one side, and France and Russia on the other, is beginning to close. The Russian Foreign Minister, Igor Ivanov, noted: "In the last few days we have succeeded in bringing the approaches of the five [UN Security Council] permanent members ... closer. We have converged on a whole series of positions."

This could mean agreement on a resolution by the end of this week. But no one is confident even of that. First, Washington and London must revise the draft resolution to take into account any compromises reached with Paris and Moscow. Then diplomats must mull the new version and consult their governments before real debate can resume.

The result is frustration for Hans Blix, the chief weapons inspector, who is ready to begin deployment of his first teams to Baghdad as soon as a resolution is passed. It also complicates the job of American military planners, who see January and February as the best time for invasion.

That timetable looked unrealistic the moment President Bush decided to tie his wagon to the UN. Now it looks nigh impossible. The resolution, when it comes, will give Mr Blix 45 days to set up his teams and 60 more days before he has to report back to the Council on progress. That is three and a half months gone already.

Under one scenario, it could be almost a year before the inspection process is over. Much, however, will depend on two men. Saddam Hussein must,as one diplomat put it, "wag his tail" throughout the process. Any bad behaviour will invite invasion.

The second figure is Mr Blix himself. Last week he told the Council that it will not be up to him to decide between war and peace. That will be the Council's business. Or Washington's business. (Who, in fact, decides when Iraq has flouted the UN badly enough to warrant military punishment is the issue that has been holding up agreement on a resolution all this time.)

But Mr Blix, 74, a former foreign minister of Sweden, will not be able to duck that burden altogether. Every syllable of every report he submits to the Council once inspections begin will be scrutinised and argued over. Others will decide whether Iraq is being serious in its obligations to cooperate with the inspectors and hand over its weapons of mass destruction. But they will base their judgements on the judgements of Mr Blix.

Just two years ago, Mr Blix was enjoying retirement. Once inspections in Iraq get started – let's say next month, to be optimistic – he may wish he still was.