Israel faces US pressure over plan for 'road-map'

With the shooting war in Iraq in effect over, the United States is about to launch a big new push for Middle East peace. But the prospects depend on the confirmation of a new Palestinian government and – as always – the extent to which Washington is ready and able to lean on Ariel Sharon's government in Jerusalem.

America's allies, most importantly Tony Blair, have long pleaded with the Bush administration for the US to engage fully in the search for an Israeli-Palestinian settlement, thus removing a major cause of instability in the region and of the resentments fuelling radical Islamic terrorism.

This week, the initiative began to take concrete shape, as aides of Mr Sharon met top Bush officials at the White House, including Colin Powell the Secretary of State, and the National Security Adviser, Condoleezza Rice.

At the same time, General Powell caught even his own close associates by surprise by revealing that he intended to visit Syria – part of a trip that would represent his first foray to the region since his fruitless visit 12 months ago, overshadowed by Palestinian suicide bombings and Israeli incursions into refugee camps in the West Bank and Gaza.

That trip is likely to be finalised as soon as Washington, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations publish their long-delayed peace plan, or "road-map," intended to lead to the establishment of a Palestinian state, within secure and definitive borders, in three years.

At the White House, the US set out its initial demands of Israel, including a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces from the occupied territories, and an easing of restrictions on financial transfers and travel to improve everyday life for the Palestinians.

In recent months, Palestinian attacks on Israelis have been far fewer. Mr Sharon, however, insists that drop is precisely because of Israel's security clampdown in the camps and elsewhere, and has signalled that he reserves the right to make unilateral changes in the road-map.

The US is counting on two things to soften his resistance. One is the confirmation of a remodelled Palestinian government under the new Prime Minister, Mahmoud Abbas, largely free of influence from Yasser Arafat, the PLO chairman, with whom neither Mr Sharon nor President Bush will have any dealings.

"I believe he is reasonable," Mr Sharon said of Mr Abbas in remarks yesterday to the New York Times columnist William Safire. "He understands you cannot break Israel by terror."

The installation of Mr Abbas will trigger publication of the "road-map." The US also hopes the intense pressure on Syria, largely isolated in the region after the rout of Saddam Hussein's regime, will produce results. The aim is to use the new leverage to force President Bashar al-Assad to abandon support for Hizbollah, and close the Damascus headquarters of Islamic Jihad and Hamas.

But the obstacles on which president Clinton's peace initiative foundered remain now, not least the "right of return" for Palestinians, over which Mr Arafat was sternly uncompromising three years ago.