Inconclusive Blix report will not halt drive for war

Weapons inspectors will tell the United Nations' Security Council today that Iraq has failed to co-operate fully in the hunt for weapons of mass destruction but that they still have no concrete evidence ­ no "smoking gun" ­ to prove Baghdad is concealing forbidden materials.

Two reports ­ to be submitted by the chief weapons inspector, Hans Blix, whose teams have been hunting for missiles as well as chemical and biological agents across Iraq, and Mohamed al-Baradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency ­ will spark intense debate at the UN on what to do next.

Several Security Council members, notably France, Germany and Russia, are certain to support a request from Mr Baradei for more time for inspections to continue, in an effort to prevent a rush by the US to use the reports as a basis for moving towards war.

Yesterday, the French Foreign Minister, Dominique de Villepin, said the weapons inspections should continue for "several weeks or a few months". He added: "Force can only be a last resort."

By contrast, the US may seize on what Mr Blix says to press its case that Iraq has already failed to honour November's UN resolution 1441, which gave Baghdad a last chance to prove it was clean of weapons of mass destruction or face "serious consequences".

While Mr Blix is unlikely to reveal any overwhelming evidence of non-compliance, he may well be harsher than Mr Baradei in assessing Iraq's record of co-operation. Issues of concern to him include the lack of progress in persuading Iraqi scientists to be interviewed in private. Mr Blix will point to large holes in the weapons programme declaration submitted by Iraq in early December and say Saddam Hussein's regime has failed to resolve them satisfactorily.

Also unresolved is a recent request by Mr Blix to Iraq for an assurance that it will not attempt to shoot down U-2 spy planes on loan to him from the United States.

In debating the reports today and on Wednesday, most Security Council members are likely to support any request for more time for inspections. Germany, which takes over the presidency of the council for the month of February, will attempt to schedule another meeting of ambassadors with Mr Blix and Mr Baradei on 15 February, diplomats said.

M. de Villepin has set his government firmly against the use of force and Germany has said even more baldly that it would not vote for the war option. A lot will depend on how much energy Washington has left for a protracted struggle at the Security Council. London has yet to decide whether it is worth trying to push some kind of resolution through that will ensure multinational support for any invasion.

Five countries seem unlikely to support any clear authorisation for war ­ France, China, Russia, Syria and Germany. That still leaves the possibility of pushing a text through with nine votes, the minimum required, assuming that France does not exercise its veto.

Foreign policy experts have warned that the country's rhetoric risked backfiring by tipping the US towards losing patience with the UN process, and a faster march towards military action. If the US is spurred to act alone, years of marginalisation of the UN Security Council could follow.

A leading US defence adviser accused France yesterday of trying to diminish the leadership of the US. Richard Perle, a Pentagon adviser, said the French wanted to "diminish the significance, importance, leadership of the United States, and every French action points in that direction".

Britain, which shares America's analysis that Iraq is not complying with inspectors, is expected to accept a continuation of inspections for a few more weeks but perhaps not months. "The majority of the Council don't have something clear enough to say it is the end of the road for inspections," one diplomat said yesterday. "Many nations sense it is going that way unless Iraq has a change of heart, but they are not voting for war yet."

The crucial week ahead

Today: Weapons inspectors present interim reports to the United Nations Security Council. Likely to complain about omissions in Iraq's declaration and about lack of co-operation but no evidence of a "smoking gun".

Tomorrow: President George Bush delivers State of the Union address to Congress. He will use it to increase the pressure on Iraq, and to justify war to the public.

Wednesday: Security Council members discuss the inspectors' report and present their positions. Tony Blair will face a sceptical Commons at Prime Minister's Questions.

Friday: Mr Bush meets Mr Blair at Camp David to discuss strategy ­ particularly how to win over sceptical nations such as France, Germany and Russia ­ and possibly set a provisional date for military action to begin.