Hawks and doves find justification in Blix report on Iraqi disarmament

This is an edited and annotated extract of the latest report by Hans Blix, the chief UN weapons inspector.

INSPECTIONS

Positive: In matters relating to process, notably prompt access to sites, we have faced relatively few difficulties and certainly much less than those faced by Unscom in the period 1991 to 1998. This may well be due to strong outside pressure.

Negative: This is not to say that the operation of inspections is free from frictions but at this juncture we are able to perform professional no-notice inspections all over Iraq and to increase aerial surveillance.

DOCUMENTS AND INTERVIEWS

Negative: Iraq, with a highly developed administrative system, should be able to provide more documentary evidence about its proscribed weapons. Only a few new such documents have come to light so far and been handed over since we began.

Negative: The provision of names prompts two reflections. The first is that, with such detailed information existing regarding those who took part in the unilateral destruction, surely there must also remain records regarding the quantities and other data concerning the various items destroyed.

The second reflection is that with relevant witnesses available it becomes even more important to be able to conduct interviews in modes and locations which allow us to be confident that the testimony is given without outside influence. While the Iraqi side seems to have encouraged interviewees not to request the presence of Iraqi officials or the taping of the interviews, conditions ensuring the absence of undue influences are difficult to attain inside Iraq. Interviews outside the country might provide such assurance. It is our intention to request such interviews shortly.

Positive: Nevertheless, despite remaining shortcomings, interviews are useful. Since we started requesting interviews, 38 individuals were asked for private interviews, of which 10 accepted under our terms, seven during the past week.

MOBILE WEAPONS

Positive: As I noted on 14 February, intelligence authorities claim weapons of mass destruction are moved around Iraq by trucks and, in particular, that there are mobile production units for biological weapons. The Iraqi side states such activities do not exist. No evidence of proscribed activities have so far been found. Iraq is expected to assist in the development of credible ways to conduct random checks of ground transportation.

Positive: There have been reports, denied by Iraq, that proscribed activities are conducted underground. Iraq should provide information on underground structures suitable for the production or storage of weapons of mass destruction. During inspections of declared or undeclared facilities, inspectors examined building structures for any possible underground facilities. In addition, ground-penetrating radar was used in several locations. No underground facilities for chemical or biological production or storage were found.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

Negative: While during our meetings in Baghdad the Iraqi side tried to persuade us that the al-Samoud 2 missiles they have declared fall within the permissible range set by the Security Council, the calculations of a panel of experts led us to the opposite conclusion.

Positive: Iraq has since accepted that those missiles and associated items be destroyed and has started the destruction under our supervision. The destruction undertaken constitutes a substantial measure of disarmament – indeed, the first since the middle of the 1990s. We are not watching the breaking of toothpicks. Lethal weapons are being destroyed.

Negative: I must add that no destruction has happened today. I hope it's a temporary break.

Positive: More papers on anthrax, VX and missiles have recently been provided. Many have been found to restate what Iraq had already declared, some will require further study and discussion. There is a significant Iraqi effort under way to clarify a major source of uncertainty as to the quantities of biological and chemical weapons, which were unilaterally destroyed in 1991.

A part of this effort concerns a disposal site, which was deemed too dangerous for full investigation in the past. It is now being re-excavated. To date, Iraq has unearthed eight complete bombs comprising two liquid-filled intact R-400 bombs and six other complete bombs. Bomb fragments were also found. Samples have been taken. The investigation of the destruction site could, in the best case, allow the determination of the number of bombs destroyed at that site. It should be followed by a serious and credible effort to determine the separate issue of how many R-400 type bombs were produced. In this, as in other matters, inspection work is moving on and may yield results.

Negative: Iraq proposed an investigation using advanced technology to quantify the amount of unilaterally destroyed anthrax dumped at a site. However, even if the use of advanced technology could quantify the amount of anthrax said to be dumped at the site, the results would still be open to interpretation. Defining the quantity of anthrax destroyed must, of course, be followed by efforts to establish what quantity was actually produced.

With respect to VX, Iraq has recently suggested a similar method to quantify a VX precursor stated to have been unilaterally destroyed in the summer of 1991. Iraq has also recently informed us that, following the adoption of the presidential decree prohibiting private individuals and mixed companies from engaging in work related to WMD, further legislation on the subject is to be enacted. This appears to be in response to a letter from Unmovic requesting clarification of the issue.

CO-OPERATION

Positive: One can hardly avoid the impression that, after a period of somewhat reluctant co-operation, there has been an acceleration of initiatives from the Iraqi side since the end of January. This is welcome, but the value of these measures must be soberly judged by how many question marks they actually succeed in straightening out. This is not yet clear.

Negative: Against this background, the question is now asked whether Iraq has co-operated "immediately, unconditionally and actively" with Unmovic, as required under paragraph 9 of resolution 1441. The answers can be seen from the factual descriptions I have provided. However, if more direct answers are desired, I would say the following:

The Iraqi side has tried on occasion to attach conditions, as it did regarding helicopters and U-2 planes. Iraq has not, however, so far persisted in these or other conditions for the exercise of any of our inspection rights. If it did, we would report it.

It is obvious that, while the numerous initiatives, which are now taken by the Iraqi side with a view to resolving some long-standing open disarmament issues, can be seen as "active", or even "proactive", these initiatives three to four months into the new resolution cannot be said to constitute "immediate" co-operation. Nor do they necessarily cover all areas.

Positive: They are nevertheless welcome and Unmovic is responding to them in the hope of solving presently unresolved disarmament issues. Members of the Council may relate most of what I have said to resolution 1441, but Unmovic is performing work under several resolutions. The quarterly report before you is submitted in accordance with resolution 1284 (1999), which not only created Unmovic but continues to guide much of our work.

Under the timelines set by the resolution, the results of some of this work is to be reported to the Council before the end of this month.Neither governments nor inspectors would want inspection to go on forever. However, it must be remembered thata sustained inspection and monitoring system is to remain in place after verified disarmament to give confidence and to strike an alarm if signs were seen of the revival of any proscribed weapons programmes.