Bush steps back from early strike on Iraq

The Bush administration yesterday signalled that the prospect of an early military strike against Iraq was receding – largely as the result of pressure exerted in private by Britain.

After weeks of expectation that the publication of the UN weapons inspectors' report on 27 January would effectively trigger a confrontation, officials now admit this is unlikely. They say that President Bush now accepts that the inspectors require further time and that this should be granted.

"The odds have gone down for war," said a well-placed US official. "We don't have a good war plan, the inspectors have unprecedented access to Iraq [and] we have just started giving them intelligence. We now have to give them more time to see how this works. There is no reason to stop the process until it cannot proceed any further."

The comments – made to the Washington Post – mark a rapid turnaround from the situation just 10 days ago when America and Britain were apparently engaged on a march to war that could have seen a strike against President Saddam Hussein's forces as early as mid-February.

Several factors have come together to influence the Bush administration's decision: the crisis with North Korea, the apparent reluctance of Turkey to allow the US to launch a northern strike from its country, and the weapons inspectors' request for more time.

But US officials admit that comments from Britain and other allies such as France, both in public and reinforced privately, have given the US an unambiguous message.

Downing Street indicated last night that Mr Blair had not spoken personally with President Bush, but officials said Britain's message had been delivered at the highest levels. The message reflected Mr Blair's comments to the Cabinet last week that 27 January should not be regarded "in any sense as a deadline".

The US Secretary of State, Colin Powell, said: "My job ... is to listen to our friends and see if we can find a way to accommodate the positions they bring to us. Prime Minister Blair and [Foreign Secretary, Jack] Straw are never shrinking violets when it comes to laying forth the position of Her Majesty's Government. And we are trying to listen. To characterise Prime Minister Blair as a poodle is an absolutely absurd and silly charge."

While negotiations continue, America is also building up its military presence in the Gulf. On Friday the US Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, signed the deployment order for a further 35,000 US troops – including 17,000 Marines – to be dispatched, bringing the number of US forces in the region to around 100,000 by the end of the month.

America still hopes it will win around Turkey, a Nato member and a staging post for the 1991 Gulf War, and persuade it to allow as many as 80,000 troops to be stationed there in preparation for an assault through northern Iraq.

In an apparent change of stance, Turkey said on Friday it would allow US officials to inspect bases there that might be used by US troops.

Polls show that more than 80 per cent of the Turkish public is opposed to military action in neighbouring Iraq. The Turkish Prime Minister, Abdullah Gul, left yesterday for Saudi Arabia and Iran as part of a Middle East tour aimed at preventing another Gulf War.

Countries in the region stood to suffer the most, he said, and they shared responsibility to prevent a conflict. "But the greatest responsibility falls on Iraq," he added. "UN decisions must be implemented in a way that leaves no room for any doubt."