Blix report may not be last seen by UN council

The attentionof a packed UN Security Council, of Western allies, of Iraq and of television viewers worldwide will again be on Hans Blix today as he presents his latest report on his inspections in Iraq. What he says will take us to war or give peace a slim chance.

The pressure on the Swedish arms control veteran will be severe. His words will be the pivot on which fevered arguments over war will turn. His only option, aides say, is to remain wholly objective.

Diplomats in New York last night predicted that the report will give Iraq credit in places, along with some black marks. It will be accompanied by a second assessment by the UN's chief nuclear weapons inspector, Mohamed al-Baradei.

Last night, Mr Blix and his team were still analysing the information given to himself and Mr Baradei on their visit to Baghdad last weekend. There may, therefore, be some unexpected trump card in his address. But it is more likely, say diplomats, that his report will be very similar to the one he delivered last month, though perhaps less harsh.

On the positive side, Iraq has at last agreed unconditionally to allow Mr Blix to make use of American U-2 spy planes. It has also promised to pass legislation next week banning the use of weapons of mass destruction. Baghdad also handed over documents on missing chemical and biological weapons but sources say the pages appear to have little that is genuinely helpful.

He will be obliged, however, to highlight the work of experts who concluded in New York this week that Iraq has been testing missiles that fly beyond the 150km (93 mile) maximum range set down in UN resolutions. Britain and America see this as proof that Baghdad is violating UN resolutions, including resolution 1441 passed in November.

And Mr Blix is likely to say that while Iraq continues to give a little ground on matters of procedure for the inspectors, it is still falling short on substance. Still missing is any convincing proof of its central claim that it no longer has the chemical and biological weapons that the world fears.

Does today's report signal the end of diplomacy in dealing with Iraq? Senior sources last night warned against such a conclusion. The US and Britain are apparently still united on seeking a second resolution in the Security Council before pursuing war. Splits are deeper than ever on the desirability of such a resolution, and the debate could take weeks.

A source said: "This may very well not be the last Blix report. The Americans can't signal that now because they don't want this to drag out. But they know Mr Blix may be allowed to come back to the Council one more time." Another report could come on 3 March.

The debate will be whether there is any point in continuing inspections? Those states resisting war – France, Germany, Russia, China and several others – are expected to urge inspections to continue.

For Britain and the US, the task is crafting a resolution that minimises the chance of a veto from France and has can garner at least the nine votes needed for adoption. The draft, likely to be tabled on Tuesday, will include a deadline for Iraq to comply – a final, final chance for Baghdad to comply.