The Saddam conundrum: Was he killed in first raid?

American intelligence was wrestling yesterday with a conundrum whose answer may decide the course of the war against Iraq: was Saddam Hussein killed or injured in Wednesday night's raid against a fortified compound in Baghdad? And if he survived unscathed, were either of his sons, or other top aides, among the victims?

Because, of course, there were victims. As one official here put it, "You don't drop 40 cruise missiles and 2,000lb 'bunker busters' and not hurt someone."

And despite the prevailing (but not universal) belief that the person who appeared on Iraqi TV later was indeed President Saddam and not a double, the Bush administration believes that if the bid to "decapitate" the regime was a miss, it was a very near miss indeed.

Bob Woodward, the veteran Washington Post reporter with especially close contacts in the CIA, reported yesterday that US intelligence is convinced that President Saddam and his sons, Qusay and Uday, were inside the compound on the southern outskirts of the Iraqi capital. The evidence was "that he was there when the building blew up", the Post quoted one official as saying.

Another official told the newspaper that President Saddam was "at least injured," citing indications that medical aid was urgently summoned to the scene. ABC News even reported that witnesses saw President Saddam being taken out of a bombed building on a hospital trolley, with an oxygen mask on his face (though how they might have recognised him is not explained).

The tape of his speech after the raid has been intensively analysed and the general conclusion is that the weary figure in military uniform wearing spectacles – as he does not usually do – reading from a prepared text, was the Iraqi leader.

But despite his references to the date (20 March) and dawn (the raid took place about 5.30am local time), analysts say the tape could have been one of several they believe he had pre-recorded for precisely this kind of eventuality. "It was not broadcast live, it could have been taped two minutes before he aired it, or two days," an official said.

According to the Post, Parisoula Lampsos, who claims to have been President Saddam's mistress for many years, said the person on the tape was not the leader.

Most important – if true – is the claim that the information on which the raid was based came not only from electronic surveillance and eavesdropping, but also from "humint", the jargon for human intelligence. In other words, the CIA now has an informant in President Saddam's entourage, a feat it has never managed before.

Even if he did survive the attack, or was not present when it happened, intelligence specialists say, this will at the very least have increased his unease that the intense US pressure might have persuaded one of his commanders, bodyguards or aides to turn against him. This will only reinforce his notorious paranoia.

Donald Rumsfeld, the American Defence Secretary, said there was individual contact between the US-led coalition and Iraqi commanders over surrender – but no direct contact with the Iraqi leadership.

As Daniel Benjamin of the Centre for International and Strategic Studies think-tank said: "Whatever the case, these individuals are likely to be rattled and will have to invest more effort in their personal safety. That will make it harder to direct any war effort and complicate their communications." As a result, he added, the leadership would make more mistakes.

And the White House and the Pentagon say exactly that may be happening. The top-secret NSA and other monitoring agencies are said to have detected a sharp fall in communications traffic and in eavesdropped conversations within the leadership.

American officials warn that the high command in Baghdad may simply be lying low, to confuse the Allies and save an element of surprise to the last. It is also possible that secure buried circuits have been activated.

But the widespread belief in Washington is that Iraqi command-and-control has been severely disrupted. "In 1991 you knew Saddam was in firm charge," a person involved in that campaign said. "This time they is no sign anyone's in charge." White House officials spoke of "complete disarray' in the Iraqi leadership.

The raid on Wednesday was a surprise start to a war widely expected to begin with a blistering "shock and awe" air campaign sending hundreds or thousands of precision- guided missiles to strategic targets in Baghdad and other key centres. In fact, that unprecedented bombardment got under way only last night.

Instead, it seems, after a long afternoon meeting with his top advisers, President George Bush gave approval for the limited strike after intelligence pinpointed President Saddam's exact whereabouts, at least for a few hours.

What that raid achieved remains a tantalising mystery. Whether it is solved depends partly on the course of the war.