Sharon bounces back in opinion polls after scandal

Ariel Sharon, who has survived scandal after scandal in his political career, looks to have bounced back yet again after corruption revelations threatened his re-election campaign and be heading for victory in elections on 28 January, opinion polls suggest.

Amram Mitzna, the Labour opposition leader, who pledged to return to the negotiating table with Yasser Arafat if elected, has failed to capitalise on Mr Sharon's troubles and is on course for a heavy defeat.

According to a poll for Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, Mr Sharon's Likud Party will win 34 seats in the Knesset. Although some polls were predicting that Likud could win as many as 40 seats at the start of the campaign, just a week ago, in the midst of the corruption scandal, Mr Sharon's support had plummeted and Likud was forecast to win only 27.

Labour will win only 20 seats, according to the poll – a desperately poor showing for the traditionally powerful party. Labour's support has remained hovering around the same mark throughout the campaign, with Mr Mitzna's peace agenda failing to attract many outside the party faithful.

Mr Mitzna's gamble this week, when the Labour Party formally pledged that it would not serve in a "national unity" coalition under Mr Sharon, as it was until a few months ago, appears to have failed.

Mr Mitzna linked that decision to the revelation that Mr Sharon's family had accepted a £1m loan from a South African businessman, allegedly to pay off debts Mr Sharon had incurred from illegal foreign contributions to his campaign for the party leadership some years ago – the scandal that briefly threatened to topple Mr Sharon. But Mr Mitzna's aim seems to have been to convince the electorate that they could not have what most Israelis want, according to the polls: a coalition under Mr Sharon with Labour as the junior partner.

Central to that was the other surprise of this elections: the massive surge in support for a previously small-time secularist party, Shinui, currently third in the polls. That led many to believe a possible election outcome was a coalition of Likud, Labour and Shinui under Mr Sharon. But Mr Mitzna's gamble appears to have failed – according to the polls, it is Shinui that has picked up voters since his announcement, not Labour.

Under its charismatic leader Tommy Lapid, Shinui has campaigned by aggressively opposing the grip on power exercised by the highly religious minority in Israel. It has proved to be fertile ground.

There is huge resentment among the secular majority that the small religious parties who have traditionally been power-brokers in coalitions have forced governments to provide huge funding for religious schools and neighbourhoods. More than anything, secular Israelis resent the fact that while they serve in the army the religious are exempted.

If the polls are right and Labour sticks to its guns and refuses to join his government, Mr Sharon's only option may be a coalition with several small religious right-wing parties. They are likely to push through more unpopular funding, and tie Mr Sharon's hands in dealing with the Palestinian issue.

Many here are now suggesting that, if Labour does badly, the party will stab Mr Mitzna in the back and join a coalition under Mr Sharon. Meanwhile, the newspapers continue to rummage around Mr Sharon's past and publish new allegations almost daily.