Russia withdrawing aircraft carrier from Syria 'is more of a symbolic, political statement' says Middle East expert

Russia’s withdrawal of military forces from Syria is “more of a political statement than a military statement”, an expert in the Syrian conflict has said.

Valery Gerasimov, the head of the Russian general staff, said Russia’s only aircraft carrier and smaller accompanying warships would be the first to return from Syria.

However, the announcement is unlikely to be followed by a full withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria, Dr Lina Khatib, the head of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, has said.

“Russia is not yet done with its campaign in Syria,” Ms Khatib told The Independent. “I think the announcement on its withdrawal is possibly a statement about a milestone in the conflict from Russia’s perspective after retaking Aleppo from the rebels.

“But there are still other areas in Syria controlled by rebels that Russia and the Syrian regime are going to focus on next.”

She added: “That is why this withdrawal announcement is more of a symbolic one, because the fight is not over for Russia.”

Syrian rebels fleeing from Aleppo have taken refuge in Idlib. At the time, UN special envoy Steffan de Mistura warned a cessation of hostilities across Syria was needed to stop Idlib from becoming “the next Aleppo”.

Russia previously announced a military withdrawal in March, although Ms Khatib said “that did not really have much of an impact on the ground because the Russian air strike campaign continued”.

She said if Russia does withdraw any troops, they will be non-essential personnel. “I would read the latest announcement as more of a political statement than a military statement,” she added.

Along with its carrier group in Syria, Russia operates an airbase in Latakia and a naval facility in Tartus.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of a partial withdrawal was followed in October by the deployment of its largest surface deployment since the Cold War to bolster the assault on the rebels’ last urban stronghold of Aleppo.

Russian military power was instrumental in helping Syrian President Bashar al-Assad regain control of the city, which was captured from rebel forces last month.

The current Syrian peace process, brokered by Russia and Turkey, is “nowhere near starting”, Ms Khatib said.

She said: “I think Russia’s actions on the ground continue to indicate that it is not interested in negotiations despite its own announcement of wanting to host talks.

“The fact that Russia announced a ceasefire that was not met with an actual halt in regime military activities in Syria is an indicator that neither Russia nor the Syrian regime are ready for peace talks.

“Basically, as long as Russia and the Syrian regime feel that they have a chance to win this war militarily, they will pursue that rather than seek a political compromise.”