Netanyahu: Is this the end for Israel's prime minister?

Thrice a shell-shocked Benjamin Netanyahu railed that Avigdor Lieberman, his troublesome ex-defence minister, was a leftist.

Unusually uncollected, the Israeli prime minister attempted to hurl the “insult” at the right-wing settler who at the 11th hour had refused to join his coalition, sinking Netanyahu’s chances of securing a record fifth term in office.

Netanyahu was speaking minutes after Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, led by his own party, took the unprecedented decision to dissolve itself just weeks after it was voted in.

It was a last-gasp attempt to stop Israel’s president from handing the reins of power to any other lawmaker than Netanyahu.

“They take the state of Israel, take billions, waste them, simply burn them [on elections],” Netanyahu continued, referring to Lieberman.

“They paralyse a country for nearly a year because of the personal ambition of one person,” he added, again referencing Lieberman.

Unwittingly he could have been seen to be describing himself.

The truth is that the spat with Lieberman was really just a sideshow.

In the past, when a leader has been unable to form a coalition in Israel, the president tasks another lawmaker with forming the government.

Had anyone else in the Likud Party been permitted to take the lead, a coalition could have been forged in seconds.

The centre block in Israel, like the Labour Party or even the Blue and White party of Netanyahu’s chief rival Benny Gantz, would have likely stepped in, giving the Likud the majority they need to rule.

But both parties refused to deal with Netanyahu himself, because in October the premier will face a pre-trial hearing after which the attorney general is widely expected to indict him across three corruption cases.

The centrist parties, and others, have also expressed alarm at Netanyahu’s reported attempts to push through wide-ranging legislation that would shield him from prosecution and destroy the powers of the supreme court.

Triggering fresh elections was the only way to save Netanyahu. But will it work? Are these the final days of the seemingly undefeatable leader?

There is no doubt that this debacle has damaged Netanyahu, whose adoring supporters have taken to shouting “King Bibi” and “magician” at him in rallies.

As Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, points out, fresh elections in September will mean that Israel has been governed by a transitional government with limited authoritiy for nearly a year, at huge economic and political cost.

The political impasse has also delayed, and may further delay, Donald Trump’s long-awaited peace plan for the region which was expected to be rolled out next month.

“The image of the political wizard who is omnipotent has been fractured as a result of the fact that he couldn’t translate such a decisive victory into a government,” Plesner told The Independent.

“The package of [immunity] bills is going to be a liability for him, it’s a weakness,” he added, referring to the draft laws shielding Netanyahu from prosecution.

Given Netanyahu was unable to form a government this time around, and is facing likely indictment at the end of the year, an outsider would be forgiven for thinking the Likud would put forward a fresh face to save itself.

The country as a whole is still right-wing and will in all probability give the Likud another win in the upcoming polls.

Within the party, the most likely figure would be Gideon Sa’ar, a former minister and rising star. He already staged a small internal rebellion over Netanyahu’s immunity bills two weeks ago.

But people close to Sa’ar say he has privately admitted he has the support of only a handful of Likud’s Members of the Knesset. The majority remain fiercely loyal to Netanyahu.

Anshel Pfeffer, an expert on the prime minister and author of a biography on the leader, said that the Likud, in its decades-long history, has never deposed one of its leaders.

“Since it is has been founded, it has only had five leaders,” he said. “Netanyahu has got control over the party hierarchy – they are all petrified of him”.

Even outside the party the leader has support, Plesner added.

“Netanyahu is still by far the most experienced, formidable campaigner, the most motivated and energetic,” he said.

On his side too is Donald Trump, who took the unusual step of intervening in Israel’s internal political crisis two days ago by writing on Twitter that he hoped Netanyahu would be able to form a coalition, so they could continue to work together.

But politics aside, nothing can halt the legal time bomb that is fast catching up with (and could unseat) Netanyahu.

The new election is on 17 September. If Bibi wins, he will need a month to form a coalition government. Should he want to ram through legislation granting him immunity, he will only have a few weeks to do that before the attorney general’s decision on his indictment is made public.

The law, as it stands, does not prohibit a leader from ruling while standing trial – but that could be changed by the supreme court.

This may be why Lieberman took such a bizarrely principled stand at the very end, refusing to budge on his demand of the conscription law, despite it triggering unprecedented elections.

If Lieberman believes that Netanyahu’s days are numbered, there will be a big gap in the right-wing leadership that will need to be filled.

But for now, no one truly knows.

“We are in uncharted territory,” Pfeffer said, in conclusion.

“There are too many unprecedented things to say.”