Benjamin Netanyahu: Israel’s prime minister is down but not yet out

With just minutes to spare, Benjamin Netanyahu’s opponents announced late on Wednesday that they had formed a coalition government, likely heralding the end of the prime minister’s extraordinary 12-year rule.

The government will be headed up by the far-right politician Naftali Bennett and the centrist Yair Lapid but has to be approved by a simple majority in a parliamentary vote that will happen within the next week.

While this is the closest that Israel has come to unseating Mr Netanyahu, it is still not a done deal, and Israeli’s longest-serving premier has already begun fighting back.

On Twitter, he called the coalition a “dangerous left-wing government” and warned right-wing parliamentarians against it.

He also targeted the historic Arab participation in the coalition: for the first time in Israel’s history, a party drawn from the country’s 21 per cent Arab minority – largely Palestinian by heritage, Israeli by citizenship – would join the  government.

The prime minister’s comments are the start of what will be a sustained campaign to pressure right-wing members of Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, to renounce the coalition before it is voted in.

On Thursday, leaders in Mr Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud Party even called on supporters to demonstrate outside the homes of Ayelet Shaked and Nir Orbach, who are in a right-wing party that is part of the coalition.

Mr Lapid and his coalition partner Mr Bennett formally told Israel’s president, Reuven Rivlin, late on Wednesday night that they had come to an agreement.

However, the coalition has only a razor-thin majority,  holding 61 of a total of 120 seats in parliament. The proposed coalition may not be able to hold together in order to name a new parliamentary speaker, who would then preside over a vote required to confirm the new government.

If the group do not achieve that, the current speaker, who is an ally of Mr Netanyahu and a member of his Likud Party, could use his position to delay the vote and give the incumbent premier more time to sabotage it.

One day before this vote, Mr Bennett and Mr Lapid will have to publish their formal coalition agreements, including details of their rotation deal, under which Bennett will be prime minister first, followed by Lapid.

There is no guarantee, even at this stage, that Mr Netanyahu will be removed from office.

There is a slim chance that between now and the vote, Mr Netanyahu, who will remain prime minister of a caretaker government, will succeed in convincing enough MKs (MPs) who have tentatively endorsed the coalition, to abandon it.

If he is successful and the fragile proposed coalition government is not voted in, then any member of parliament will have 21 days to try to cobble together enough parliamentarians to endorse another coalition.

If no one succeeds in achieving that, the country will go to its fifth election in just over two years.

Dr Assaf Shapira, at the Israel Democracy Institute, said there are thorny issues that don’t need to be fully resolved before the vote but which could be used by Mr Netanyahu’s supporters to persuade MKs who are on the fence.

Among the most divisive issues are the relationship between religion and state, as well as the issue of LGBT+ rights.

There is also a demand from the United Arab List party that the agreement include provisions freezing the demolition of homes built without permits in Arab villages as well as granting official status to Bedouin towns in the Negev desert, a stronghold for Islamist support.

That has been tentatively agreed but could again be used to pressure right-wing MKs to defect to Mr Netanyahu’s camp.

There are also appointments to key bodies, such as Israel’s judicial committee, which have been agreed but could still be a pressure point that Mr Netanyahu uses, Dr Shapira added.

If the hodgepodge coalition government is voted in, Mr Bennett, who heads the ultra-nationalist party Yamina – meaning “Rightwards” – will become the first prime minister in a rotation deal.

The religious, pro-settler leader won only seven of the Knesset’s 120 seats in the 23 March election but has emerged first as kingmaker, then as kingslayer and likely now as king, as both sides have vied for his support and his seats.

Mr Bennett was born in Haifa, the son of Jewish American immigrant parents. He started out as a hi-tech millionaire before being called up as a reservist in a special forces unit during the 2006 war in Lebanon, after which he entered politics.

He has long championed settlements in the occupied West Bank (which are illegal under international law), heading up the Yesha Council, the political representative group for Jewish settlers.

He also worked in Mr Netanyahu’s bureau and was a close ally.

Over the years, he has served as economy minister, education minister and minister of defence.

Jason Palman, who worked for Mr Bennett’s office and the office of his coalition partner Gideon Saar, said that Bennett “has a very hawkish approach to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict” but is liberal on other issues, such as the economy.

He may, however, face cries of betrayal for forming a government with centre-left partners instead of his natural allies on the right.

Mr Lapid would start out as the alternate prime minister for the first two years before then becoming prime minister himself.

He heads up his centre-left party Yesh Atid – “There Is a Future” – which came second, with 17 seats, during the last round of elections.

The former finance minister and TV host campaigned to “bring sanity” back to Israel – a dig at Mr Netanyahu. But the coalition with Mr Bennett will likely be unstable, uniting unlikely allies from across the political spectrum.

Even if the coalition is able to form a government, it will remain fragile. It brings together vastly different parties, including the centrist Yesh Atid, and Blue and White; the right-wing Yamina, Yisrael Beiteinu and New Hope; the left-wing Labour and Meretz; and a small Islamist party, the United Arab List. Accordingly, they have different opinions on many key issues.

But some experts believe the coalition can survive if it gets voted in.

Dr Shapira said that its diversity could help because the two different blocs would have mutual veto rights over each other, meaning that no overtly controversial decisions could be made by any side.

Mr Palman said that all sides have made it clear that some divisive issues, such as taking unilateral actions in the West Bank, will have to be shelved for now.

He added that Mr Lapid and Mr Bennett have a long history of operating together politically, particularly during several Netanyahu governments.

“They were called the ‘band of brothers’ alliance as they worked together to make sure they weren’t left out,” Mr Palman said.

The success of the coalition would not necessarily mean the end for Mr Netanyahu, however. He could remain a member of parliament, even though he is indicted in three corruption cases. A quarter of the electorate voted for his Likud Party, which remains the largest party, with 30 of the 120 Knesset seats.

He may even, later on, return to office.