Why Israel has evacuated residents from its northern border with Lebanon

While Israel is readying its army for an expected ground invasion into Gaza, there have been clashes on the border with Lebanon to the north across the last week.

Israel has activated a plan to evacuate residents of 28 villages within two kilometres (one mile) of the border with Lebanon with the situation having intensified on Sunday. Hezbollah militants firing rockets and an anti-tank missile, and Israel responding with airstrikes and shelling. The Israeli military also reported shooting at one of its border posts.

The fighting killed at least one person on the Israeli side and wounded several on both sides of the border. Days of fire exchange have left at least seven people dead, including four Hezbollah fighters, on the Lebanese side.

Why have the evacuations been ordered?

There has been increasing concern from Israel and nations such as the US that the conflict over Gaza could expand to include Hezbollah – an ally of the Hamas militants that rule Gaza and launched the attack of terror into Israel last weekend – to the north.

Beyond the latest strikes and retaliations from the air, Hezbollah said it has started destroying surveillance cameras on several Israeli army posts along the border. Hezbollah's military media arm released a video showing snipers shooting at and destroying surveillance cameras placed on five points along the Lebanon-Israel border including one outside the Israeli town of Metula.

The militant group appears to want to prevent the Israeli army from monitoring movements on the Lebanese side of the border.

The group is significantly better equipped than Hamas, with an arsenal of tens of thousands of sophisticated rockets, according to Michael Knights, a fellow at the Washington Institute and expert on Iran-backed groups.

“Israel says the Hamas attack involved about 1,500 commandos entering Israel: Israel has assessed that Hezbollah has a 45,000-strong regular army,” he told The Independent. “Hamas fired about 3,300 missiles and drones so far: Hezbollah has around 150,000 munitions ready to fire.”

That has clearly played into the thinking of Israel as tensions have increased in recent days and clashes have increased.

What could happen?

The consequences of a significant clash between Hezbollah and Israel were demonstrated in 2006, when Hezbollah and Israel fought a 34-day war that led to the deaths of 1,200 people in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and 157 Israelis, mostly soldiers. In that confrontation, which was sparked when Hezbollah fighters attacked an Israeli army convoy patrolling the border, killing three soldiers and taking two hostages, Israel pummelled civilian infrastructure across Lebanon, including in the capital, Beirut. Hezbollah fired more than 4,000 rockets into Israel, killing dozens of civilians.

The 2006 war ended with a United Nations-brokered ceasefire in August of that year. In the aftermath, despite suffering significantly more casualties, Hezbollah claimed a strategic victory because it maintained its ability to continue firing rockets.

Since then, Israel claims Hezbollah has drastically increased its stockpile of missiles, most of them unguided, which could wreak havoc across Israel. The group also gained valuable battlefield experience by sending thousands of its fighters to join Syrian government forces in that country’s civil war.

Since then, Israel claims Hezbollah has drastically increased its stockpile of missiles, most of them unguided, which could wreak havoc across Israel. The group also gained valuable battlefield experience by sending thousands of its fighters to join Syrian government forces in that country’s civil war.

What about Iran?

The Israeli military accused Iran on Monday of having ordered attacks by Hezbollah at the Lebanon-Israel border on Sunday.

“Hezbollah carried out a number of attacks yesterday in order to try to divert our operational efforts [away from the Gaza Strip], under the direction and backing of Iran, while endangering the state of Lebanon and its citizens,” Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said in a briefing. “We have increased our forces on the northern border and respond aggressively to any activity against us”.

At stake is the balance of power in a regional proxy war between rivals Israel and Iran. The Islamic Republic has spent years building a network of allied militant groups opposed to Israel, which it collectively calls “the resistance.” Those groups — Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Houthi rebels in Yemen and various Shia militant groups in Iraq and Syria — have been furnished with military training, financial support, missiles, and the ability to make their own missiles.

Ahmed Abdul-Hadi, the representative of Hamas in Lebanon, insisted Monday that the decision to launch the attack in southern Israel was made by Hamas leadership and not directed by Iran or any other outside party, but he said that in event of a ground invasion of Gaza, allied groups will intervene.

The war in Gaza is "a Palestinian battle and the decision to enter it was a Palestinian decision" made by Hamas and its military wing, the Izz ad-Din al Qassam Brigades, "together with the Palestinian resistance factions," he said in an interview with The Associated Press ahead of a conference convened by the group in Beirut.

Hamas officials have denied that Iran was directly involved in planning the deadly attack or gave it the green light, and to date no government worldwide has offered direct evidence that Iran orchestrated the attack. However, many have pointed to Iran's long sponsorship of Hamas that has included training, funding and providing it with weapons.

Abdul-Hadi said that Hamas allies Iran and Hezbollah will not allow Israel "to crush Gaza" or to launch a "comprehensive ground attack," but that the groups have deliberately left ambiguity about when and how they would respond. "This is up to the developments in the situation at the time."

The US is clearly concerned about what Iran will do. "There is a risk of an escalation of this conflict, the opening of a second front in the north and, of course, Iran's involvement," White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told the American TV network CBS on Sunday.

The US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin announced deployment of a second aircraft carrier group late on Saturday, calling it a sign of "our resolve to deter any state or non-state actor seeking to escalate this war."

"Iran is the elephant in the room," a US official briefed on the situation told Reuters about the increasing military presence. "The carriers are accompanied by warships and attack planes. Every effort is being made to stop this from becoming a regional conflict."

As for Iran, it has sought to talk tough in recent days. On Sunday, the nation's foreign minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, warned that his country could act, telling al Jazeera that it had conveyed a message to Israeli officials that "if they do not cease their atrocities in Gaza, Iran cannot simply remain an observer."

"If the scope of the war expands, significant damages will also be inflicted upon America," he said.

Reuters and Associated Press contributed to this report