No diplomatic breakthrough for the US over Israel-Gaza – so where do we go from here?

As Antony Blinken engages in a bout of shuttle diplomacy in the Middle East he has three things he wants to achieve in regards to Israel and Gaza. The problem is that none of them are going well.

The first is to persuade Israel to permit a pause in the fighting to let more aid in and potentially hostages out. Pressure is building for some form of ceasefire as the death toll continues to grow in Gaza – as Israel’s aerial bombardment and associated ground operations continue. That figure is now above 10,000 according to the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza. The Pentagon put the number of civilian causalities in the thousands on Monday, without offering a specific number.

During Mr Blinken’s meeting with Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan, the US secretary of state was told that a ceasefire needs to be declared urgently. There was no facetime with Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan who has been highly critical of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and an outlier among Nato allies in not expressing full support for Israel’s right to defend itself.

Mr Netanuahu has made it clear a number of times in recent days, at least in public, that he will not contemplate a ceasefire – temporary or otherwise – until all of the 240-plus hostages taken in the Hamas attack into Israel on 7 October are released. Given the number of Israelis killed during that terror attack (1,400) and the rhetoric about eradicating Hamas that has been a constant feature of the bombing campaign that followed, there appears scant hope of Mr Blinken getting Mr Netanyahu to move. At least for now.

The second is to try and get Arab nations in the region to think about what can be done to bring about longer term peace beyond the current war. Given the decades of talks and the multiple wars that have been fought inside or over the skies of Gaza, all without any kind of lasting agreement, that seems like something that is fruitless at this exact point. Not least that nations such as Turkey and Jordan want to see an end to the current bloodshed as the obvious priority. Mr Blinken may feel that talking out the bigger issues is an important part of keeping the conversation moving, but it will be little more than that.

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The third element is stopping the conflict spreading further. The US has been clear of the danger it sees from Iran, who back both Hamas and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The deployment of two US aircraft carrier strike groups to the eastern Mediterranean was both a sign of support for Israel and a warning to Iran, something bolstered by the deployment of a nuclear-powered submarine to the Middle East, which arrived in the region over the weekend.

The last few days have made it clear that there appears to be little appetite for a wider war. Despite all the fiery rhetoric aimed at Israel and the US by Iran, the head of Hezbollah gave a speech late last week that said the group, and Israel, was not aware of the Hamas attack on Israel ahead of time and stopping short of declaring full-fledged war on Israel, despite repeated clashes on the border between the two nations since Israel's bombardment of Gaza began.

That is not to say there is no risk. There was another barrage of rockets fired from Lebanon towards northern Israel on Monday, claimed by the military wing of Hamas. The Israeli military later said that it was striking targets belonging to Hezbollah. Mr Blinken will be acutely aware of the threat of an escalation with any kind of wrong move from either side.

After his meetings in Ankara, Mr Blinken said: “All of this is a work in progress... We don’t obviously agree on everything, but there are common views on some of the imperatives of the moment that we’re working on together.”

He mentioned aid and civilian casualties: “We’ve engaged the Israelis on steps that they can take to minimise civilian casualties... We’re [also] working, as I said, very aggressively on getting more humanitarian assistance into Gaza.”

He also mentioned hostages: “We are very focused on the hostages held by Hamas, including the Americans, and we are doing everything possible to bring them home.”

But it is the first quote of those three that shows where we are. This is all a work in progress – work that doesn’t seem to have an end at sight for now.

So where do we go from here? With Israel seemingly not going to budge on the idea of a humanitarian pause at this point, Mr Blinken and the US have little choice but to keep talking, to try and keep up their own pressure. As well as working to facilitate those nations such as Qatar working to see hostages freed. But Qatar has also said the release of hostages will be difficult without a “period of calm” in Gaza.

Many will think that Washington's talk is cheap. Time will tell.