Defeat stares Israel's nearly man in the face

Maayan Malkan, 22, was full of praise for Amram Mitzna, the Labour leader, moments after hearing him speak at a demobilisation conference for freshly discharged soldiers.

Mr Mitzna had judged his appearance perfectly, telling his young audience: "I'm not here to make a political speech. This is a welcome home. Whoever you vote for on Tuesday, just make sure you vote."

Mr Malkan, who saw combat service as an artilleryman in Gaza and on the Lebanon border, will be taking Mr Mitzna's advice. "He is an honest man, a wise man and a good mayor here. I respect him."

And yet when he does so, it will be to vote for Ariel Sharon in the Israeli elections.

Which helps to sum up Mr Mitzna's central problem. Personal respect for him extends far beyond Haifa, where he is mayor, and relations between Jews and Arabs here are relatively more relaxed than elsewhere in Israel.

Given an outstanding military record, a straight-talking, largely unbombastic style and the fact that his neatly bearded face is a fresh one among the national political establishment, that isn't surprising.

But none of that is preventing dismal poll ratings which if borne out could mean Labour sliding towards one of its poorest ever showings in the Knesset, Israel's parliament, on Tuesday.

In Mr Malkan's case, his own military service – "I learnt more in those three years than in the rest of my life. I saw people killed. I have matured as a person" – has been, he implies, a turning point.

He used to think negotiating land for peace with the present Palestinian leadership was the way to snuff out the causes of conflict. "Arafat is a murderer," he insists. "He believes in terror even if he may not show that side of himself."

While it would be possible to make peace with the Palestinian people, he says, he doesn't think it can be achieved with a leadership "that doesn't believe in democracy".

Mr Malkan's is just one voice. But his political journey since the start of the intifada is part of what Mr Mitzna is up against as he attempts to broaden the appeal of his proposal for an unconditional start to negotiations with the Palestinians.

Overlaying the long-term desire for peace attested in almost every survey, there is among an electorate which Asher Arian, Haifa University's Professor of Political Science yesterday called "more depressed, fatigued and frustrated than at any time I can remember," a yearning for "Labour's programme in Likud dress".

Even for those who would not go as far as Mr Malkan, Yasser Arafat, with whom Mr Sharon has said he will not negotiate, may be the crucial factor in determining voter choice in Likud's favour.

"Arafat is the real hero of this election," says Uri Dromi, the prominent former Labour government press chief. "People want peace but they don't trust Arafat."

But Mr Mitzna's problems do not end there. Figures from the Israel Democracy Institute showed yesterday that only 34 per cent even of his own supporters emphasise his "leadership qualities". This contrasts with 80 per cent of voters on the right picking out the same qualities for their leader, Mr Sharon. This can in part be explained by the incumbency factor working for Mr Sharon: Mr Mitzna has been leader for only two months and has not been in national government.

But his decision to rule out participation in a Sharon-led unity coalition has triggered open Labour criticisms. This underlines the conspicuous failure of his Labour opponents to suspend their infighting, even during the campaign.

But it also goes to the heart of an electoral problem – by no means of Mr Mitzna's making – that Labour is opposing a government of which it was only recently a part.

This week Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, his predecessor whose supporters hope will replace Mr Mitzna in a post-election coup, had a raucous reception from pro-Sharon traders in Jerusalem during a walkabout at the Mahane Yehuda market. Admittedly, the market has been a target for suicide bombers and is tough, working-class Likud territory. As he left, Shimon Shetreet, senior deputy mayor in the city, said: "Mitzna is a good person, of good character. He was a good general and he's an honest man but we followed the wrong strategy. We should have been more centrist or adopted a policy of constructive ambiguity about whether to join a coalition, leaving the actual decision until later. That way we could have got the issue of [Likud] corruption and good government on to the agenda."

Mitzna supporters respond by saying that the long-term future for Labour is as a clear alternative and opposition to a Likud-led government, and that the parties should restart the peace process without dictating who should represent the Palestinians. This is the view of European governments, including Britain – so far.

This week Shlomo Ben-Ami, the former Labour foreign minister, warned Labour had utterly failed to extend its base to form a "a rainbow coalition" among the new Jewish immigrant groups showing the fastest demographic growth.

Whether Mr Mitzna could be the one to embark on the urgent task of rebuilding the party remains to be seen. But he is said to be a fighter who won't easily give up. And if he can survive this election and what promises to be bitter infighting after it, he can probably survive a great deal in the hothouse of Israeli politics.