Latin America File: Cali cartel taints Colombian poll

HAVANA - It is only five days since the governing Li beral Party candidate, Er nesto Samper, narrowly won a run-off for the Colombian presidency. But five months remain before his swearing- in and only a brave man would bet on his donning the presidential sash.

No sooner had Mr Samper defeated his Conservative rival, Andres Pastrana, than tapes of bugged telephone conversations emerged that suggested the country's Cali drug cartel had provided millions of dollars to the Liberal campaign. But it was by no means clear Mr Samper knew of any campaign financing by the powerful Cali drug barons, if indeed such financing occurred.

Questions arose as to how Mr Pastrana had obtained the tapes he said he had handed over to the authorities before the weekend ballot. He said he had been handed the tapes by a stranger in Cali while campaigning a few days before the run-off.

The tapes purportedly include the voices of the Cali cartel's leaders, brothers Gilberto and Miguel Rodriguez Orejuela, saying they had provided around dollars 3.5m ( pounds 2.3m) to Mr Samper's campaign.

The apparently bugged calls could have been a set- up, aimed at preventing Mr Samper from taking over from President Cesar Gaviria in November, or simply at creating political chaos, the habitat in which the drug cartels thrive.

There were questions over Mr Pastrana's response to the tapes. Gone was the gracious loser. 'A president who has received money from drug traffickers doesn't have the moral authority to lead Colombia,' he insisted. The opposition newspaper, La Prensa, owned by the Pastrana family, went further, suggesting Mr Samper might end up in jail.

Agents of the US Drug Enforcement Administration expressed no surprise at the scandal. They had assumed cocaine money had been financing political campaigns of leading parties for years. The DEA believes the Cali cartel has not only financed politicians of all hues but may well have had its own people inside the government for many years. That, the US agents believe, is the most likely explanation for the cartel's survival. It will be a long, hot summer for the president-elect. And that's if he's lucky.

ALL THE signs are that President Bill Clinton is going to do for Haiti what Ronald Reagan did for Grenada and George Bush for Panama - putting them on the map by wiping part of their population off it. The pointers to an invasion are all in place. The Miami Herald, reported this week that the Caribbean nation was crawling with US spooks 'from every major intelligence service'. But then again it always has been. Haiti's military has long had US 'advisers', usually retired military men. No doubt, they will blend into the scenery if and when the marines come ashore.

President Clinton will be anxious to ensure the marines do not linger as long as they did the last time they invaded Haiti. That was in 1915. They liked the place so much that they stayed until 1934.

IT IS the plight of Guatemalan's Indians that is the crux of peace talks going on this week as far from the Guatemalan jungle as is imaginable - in Oslo.

This week's UN-mediated talks between the Guatemalan government and guerrilla leaders of the Guatemalan National Revolutionary Unit produced agreement on setting up a human rights commission to look into horrific abuses against Indian peasants during three decades of civil war. But three key issues remain to be discussed this year: granting greater rights to the Indian majority, working towards true democracy, and reducing the role of the all-powerful armed forces.