Global warming gets cold shoulder

World leaders have gone cool on global warming. The climate summit that begins in Berlin tomorrow, therefore, will be an exercise in playing for time.

The most that is likely to emerge from 11 days of talks is a decision to make a decision in 1997 on what to do next about the threat of man- made climate change. And even that is far from certain.

Oil-exporting countries such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait would prefer the environment ministers to steer well clear of any commitments that could limit the world's rapidly growing use of fossil fuels.

The burning of oil, coal and gas produce most of the ``greenhouse gases'', such as carbon dioxide and methane. As their concentration builds up, they are trapping heat in the atmosphere. There are fears that the Opec nations may use a debate over rules of procedure to block progress on future commitments to cut down.

Almost three years ago, prime ministers and presidents from more than 100 countries signed a framework treaty on climate change at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro.

The treaty's overall aim was to stabilise levels of greenhouse gases at concentrations which did not threaten dangerous changes in climate and rises in sea levels.

Three years ago, however, the only commitment made was by the developed OECD countries, responsible for about half of global output of these gases. They made a vague, non-binding undertaking to stabilise their annual emissions at the 1990 level by 2000.

Now 118 countries have ratified the treaty and the time has come for the first conference of the parties in Berlin. The majority of climate scientists continue to warn that climate change is coming and that it will be more rapid than at any time in the past 10,000 years.

A time, then, for further commitments? Not exactly. To begin with, several of the world's largest per-capita emitters of greenhouse gases, including the United States, Canada and Australia, have filed national reports to the treaty secretariat which imply they will not meet their year 2000 stabilisation commitment. They are not going to be rushed into promising cuts.

Furthermore, the politicians and diplomats gathering in Berlin lack vital information. At this stage, climatologists can still provide only the haziest estimates of how fast climates will change; a rise in average temperatures of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees centigrade by 2100 is their best guess.

Some regions will warm more than others and there will also be local changes in the amount and the seasons of rainfall. The scientists offer no precision whatsoever in forecasting how these climate alterations will be distributed - nor will they be able to for at least another five years.

Some nations may actually benefit from the change, being able to grow more food and enjoy a less extreme climate. Rather more are expected to be losers, with poor, densely populated countries struggling to cope with more frequent drought and flooding. And some wealthy countries may be able to be almost indifferent - their climate changes will be slight and the necessary adaptations cost less than 1 per cent of GDP.

Climate change remains, then, a largely unknown threat which will come to pass well outside most current senior politicians' terms of office. Hence the strategy of delay and the pending failure of nations rich and poor to promise to curb greenhouse gases. Such curbs imply cutting consumption of fossil fuels, the drug on which all but the most impoverished of economies remain hooked.

A grouping of more than 30 small island states, some of whose members fear they may disappear under rising sea levels, are calling for a new treaty protocol under which the developed countries would cut their carbon dioxide emissions by 20 per cent between 1990 and 2005.

That proposal has no chance of winning the necessary consensus in Berlin, although it has some support among the G77 grouping of Third World nations. They point out that the rich North carries most responsibility for the threat, and many say the OECD will have to pay them to find ways of growing their economies without rapidly increasing coal, oil and gas consumption.

The fact is, however, that the Third World is the most at risk from global warming. Climatologists believe the largest changes in rainfall will occur in the tropics, and developing countries lack the resources to adapt their agriculture to climate change.

The European Union will be pushing for a mandate from Berlin for nations to negotiate a strengthened treaty in time for the next conference of parties in 1997. What the EU has in mind is a commitment by the developed countries to stabilise or cut their emissions between 2000 and 2010.

Britain and Germany are pushing for a post-2000 cut. "We believe the convention should be strengthened through concrete targets and timetables," says Angela Merkel, the German environment minister, who will preside over the conference.