Exiled warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin sends defiant message in Russia’s game of thrones

After the astonishing and momentous 24 hours in which an apparent coup unfolded in Russia, there is now uncertainty and confusion about who is likely to survive in the Kremlin’s deadly game of thrones.

The main man in the arena, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was unheard and unseen since calling off his mutiny – in stark contrast to his frequent and fierce rants about the state of the Ukraine war.

He broke his silence late on Monday with an 11-minute audio message declaring that he and his fighters had only engaged in hostilities in response to the Russian government seeking to close down his mercenary company, Wagner, and merge it with the defence ministry.

“The goal of the march was to not allow the destruction of the Wagner private military company and hold to account the officials who through their unprofessional actions have committed a massive number of errors. Society demanded it,” said Mr Prigozhin.

He was not seeking regime change, he insisted. “It was not our goal to overthrow the regime. We stopped at that moment when it became clear that much blood would be spilt. That’s why we believe that the demonstration of what we were planning to do was enough. Our decision to turn back had two factors: we didn’t want to spill Russian blood. Secondly, we marched as a demonstration of our protest.”

But Mr Prigozhin also acknowledged that his troops had killed Russian airmen during their advance, saying they “regretted that they were required to carry out strikes against aircraft but they were hitting our forces with bombs and rocket strikes”. He boasted that the move into Russia was a “masterclass” in how Russia should have carried out its invasion of Ukraine which failed to achieve its goal of taking Kyiv.

Mr Prigozhin confirmed that the Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko had brokered a deal with Vladimir Putin to “find ways for Wagner to work legally”. He did not elaborate on what this will entail.

It is not known whether the recording was made in Belarus, where he is supposedly in exile under the deal, or whether he is still in Russia or occupied Ukraine.

The march on Moscow by the Wagner boss has been likened by some to Mussolini’s march on Rome. The Wagner boss failed to seize power like the fascists in pre-war Italy, but, for the moment, he appears to have escaped the eventual fate of Il Duce – lynched and hanging from a lamppost.

All criminal charges have supposedly been dropped against Mr Prigozhin and his fighters under the Lukashenko agreement.

This in itself is remarkable considering Mr Putin had accused the Wagner boss of a “stab in the back” and threatened the “severest consequences”. The Russian president has said more than once that one thing he cannot forgive is “treachery”; the killing of Alexander Litvinenko in London and the attempted poisoning of the Skripals in Salisbury attest to that.

But there are contradictory accounts of just what has been agreed in the deal. According to the Kremlin, all criminal charges against Mr Prigozhin and Wagner over the mutiny have been dropped. “Avoiding bloodshed, internal confrontation and clashes with unpredictable results was the highest goal”, spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stressed.

Yet three of Russia’s main news agencies – Tass, RIA and Interfax – and the Kommersant newspaper maintain that the criminal investigation into Mr Prigozhin and Wagner is continuing. The FSB, Russia’s intelligence service, they reported, has not had time to close the case.

The overall consensus, among Western and Ukrainian security officials, is that the investigation will be closed down. Reneging on the deal will reignite a highly combustible situation while Wagner remains heavily armed and still autonomous.

On Saturday and Sunday the main bulk of the Wagner fighters withdrew from Rostov-on-Don, the headquarters of Russia’s southern military command they occupied. The Kremlin has offered to enlist them, numbering in varying estimates between 10,000 and 25,000, into the country’s military.

Meanwhile, the two particular targets of Mr Prigozhin’s venom towards the Moscow hierarchy, defence minister Sergei Shoigu, and military chief Valery Gerasimov, appear to have remained at their posts, at least for the time being.

There has been speculation that the defence ministry would go to Alexey Dyumin, a former Putin bodyguard and an associate, once described as a patron of Mr Prigozhin. But after failure to appear in public for three days, Mr Shoigu turned up to meet Russian troops on the frontline on Monday morning looking outwardly composed and in control.

There have also been claims that Mr Gerasimov may be replaced as head of the military by General Sergey Surovikin, the former commander in Syria and someone Mr Prigozhin has been lobbying to take over the top post.

However Gen Surovikin was quick to demand that the Wagner forces turn back when the attempted putsch began.

“The enemy is eagerly awaiting a worsening of our internal disputes. In these difficult times for our country, you must not play into the hands of our enemies. Before it is too late, it is urgently necessary to obey the orders of the elected president of the Russian Federation”, he stated.

What happens next, of course, is of huge consequence not just to Russia or the Ukraine war but the international community.

Speaking at Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) in London, General Sir Patrick Sanders, the head of the British Army, said, “a fractured Russia is unlikely to be a good thing”.

He pointed out that Mr Progozhin and other critics of the military high command were not against the war, but wanted it conducted more ferociously.

Turning to the current Ukrainian counteroffensive, Gen Sanders praised the Ukrainian forces, saying, “their bravery and sacrifice is buying us time. But for every extra month that we’re privileged to gain, there is a terrible cost. One that we can never take for granted. Nor one that we can irresponsibly squander. We must do more. We owe it to Ukraine.”

Gen Sanders cautioned against overexpectation. “Despite the lively debate around the capability of the Russian forces, and the ambiguity over political stability in Russia itself, one thing is Putin’s army is holding ground. His soldiers’ boots remain lodged on Ukrainian soil. It is too early to tell how successful Ukraine’s counteroffensive will be, you should never write off Moscow, Russia has a history of comebacks”, he commented.

Lord Richards of Herstmonceux, the former head of the British military, has also warned that the West risks “woefully underestimating Russia”. He said “despite the weakened state, arguably, of Putin, we’re in for the long haul in the Ukraine war; and that actually is the worst of all worlds for the West.”

General Lord Dannatt, a former head of the army, has claimed that Mr Prigozhin may launch an invasion of Ukraine from Belarus. “The fact that he has gone to Belarus is, I think, a matter of some concern. If he has gone to Belarus and has kept an effective fighting force around him, he then presents a threat again to the Ukrainian flank closest to Kyiv.”

He added: “Ukraine need to watch that flank very carefully and make sure they have got some manoeuvre units such that they could repel a renewed attack from the direction of Belarus.”

There are no signs that Wagner forces have moved to Belarus. General Serhii Naiev, commander of Ukrainian joint forces, said the border with Belarus “remains stable and under control”.

“We have seen no increase in equipment or manpower of the enemy. We are very well prepared. For Wagner to attack from Belarus would be nothing but suicide,” he said.