Russia presidential election: Vladimir Putin poised for resounding victory

Free salami sandwiches, cut-price chicken legs and discounted vodka mean only one thing in Russia — it’s election day.

With the re-election of Vladimir Putin a foregone conclusion, all eyes have long been focused on the strength of turnout and the size of the president’s winning margin. In pre-election briefings, the Kremlin suggested it had lowered its initial turnout target of 70% to 65%. This is roughly the figure recorded at the last elections in 2012.

According to early indications, the final result is set to be in excess of that.

Across the Far East and Siberia, where voting began first, the data was on average 5% higher than six years ago. As of 3pm Moscow time, other regions were reporting interim figures 50% above those recorded at the same time in 2012. Two hours later, turnout broke the 50% level.

All of this raised the prospect of Vladimir Putin being returned as president on record turnout, and perhaps even beating his previously highest share of the vote (71.9% in 2004).

Voting in presidential elections has never reached 70%, even in the most competitive of ballots — an example of which this is certainly not.

In 1996, when Boris Yeltsin controversially won by a slim percentage, second-round turnout was 69.4%. In 2008, an election marked by a high number of suspicious ballot papers, Dmitry Medvedev was elected on a 69% turnout. In 2012, the figure was 65.3%, and many suggested it would be a struggle to get past that figure today.

But today in Moscow — historically, the city least electorally enamoured by the president — polling stations were unusually busy. There were even queues at some, though not always for the right reasons. Station 2204 drew particular attention to itself — until it was discovered that students had transferred their votes there for the chance of winning a tablet computer.

A similar picture was reported across the country, with voters being entertained by performances and concerts, and again, discounted food. At one polling station, Russians were offered the chance to load and unload Stalin-era ammunition before exercising their democratic right.

There have already been multiple and persuasive claims of fraud.

At the election headquarters of Alexei Navalny, the man who was not allowed to participate in the election, observers reported figures broadly in line with official claims. But they said that the elections had been accompanied by “unprecedented” levels of forced voting, with groups of voters — factory workers, policemen, soldiers — delivered to voting stations en masse.

Ballot box stuffing was also reported. Some of it was captured on camera, or on the basis of photographs showing ballot papers clumped together in suspicious fashion. In one monastery, nuns were recorded ticking boxes before handing to their sisters to perform their holy ritual. In several polling stations, video cameras seemed to have been deliberately covered — with balloons, retractable walls and curtains.

As expected, there were many reports of dubious electoral activities in Russia's most lawless areas. In Dagestan, a group of men beat up election observers; while the observers were away, officials seemed to use the opportunity to stuff the ballot boxes with additonal papers.

The Elections Commission has confirmed two cases of ballot-stuffing in Moscow and the Moscow region. The Commission says it has cancelled all the votes contained in both instances, and claims that the cases were isolated.

On a subjective level, examples of open electoral fraud seem to be less prevalent in previous elections.

According to Vitaly Kovin, a committee member of the Golos election observer team, this is because much of the manual work to increase turnout has been done in advance of voting day.

“The main issue seems to be the forced mobilisation, organised in the run-up, and it is very difficult to prove this,” he said. “The only way you can record it the is if people declare that they have been forced to vote, and that isn’t happening.”

Independent election observer Sergei Shpilkin told The Independent that turnout was “undoubtedly higher” than in 2012: “There may also be fewer examples of ballot-box stuffing too, but we will only know when we get the results.”

Mr Shpilkin's modelling of previous election results has consistently shown markedly suspicious voting patterns since 2000.

Exit polls will begin to trickle in some time after 9pm Moscow time, when polling stations on Russia’s western border close. The first returns will already be clear in the evening, Moscow time.

Official results will be published by Tuesday — but no one, surely, will be waiting until then.