Ukraine’s troops hope new US weapons will turn tide as Putin’s forces advance in east

Ukraine’s top military commander has been uncharacteristically open about the fact that some of Kyiv’s troops have been withdrawn from several frontline positions in eastern Ukraine as Russia intensifies its attacks.

Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi made the comments as Russian forces have been pressing hard since they captured their biggest prize this year, Avdiivka, north of Donetsk city, eastern Ukraine, in February.

Recently Russian forces have advanced to the town of Novokalynove, north of Avdiivka, and into Keramik, northwest of there. There has also been significant movement around Ocheretyne, and Moscow claimed on Sunday its troops captured Novobakhmutivka, 16km (10 miles) north of Avdiivka and, closer, heavy fighting is reported near Berdychi. On Monday, Russia’s Defence Ministry claimed it has taken another village, Semenivka.

Moscow’s push has sought to take advantage of Ukraine running low of vital ammunition and weapons thanks to political infighting in the US Congress that delayed the passing of a $61bn (£48bn) aid package until last week.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday that these weapons were starting to arrive in Ukraine in small amounts but deliveries needed to be faster. Mr Zelensky told a joint press conference in Kyiv alongside Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg that the situation on the battlefield is directly dependent on the speed of ammunition supplies to Ukraine.

“Timely support for our army. Today I don’t see anything positive on this point yet. There are supplies, they have slightly begun, this process needs to be sped up,” he said.

A Ukrainian colonel in the general staff who spoke to The Independent on condition of anonymity, said: “It’s not desirable, of course, to withdraw from positions we’ve defended so long and so tenaciously. But with our supplies of shells meaning we could fire only one shell or rocket for every five or 10 fired by the Russians... the decision was taken to save lives and relocate to positions we can defend more easily.”

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The colonel said that if US weapons begin to arrive in numbers, there is hope that Ukraine might be able to push back soon. Although Kyiv’s forces will face more losses in the meantime. Hes said: “As we now anticipate that we will be supplied regularly we can now balance out – stabilise – the situation and we hope to reclaim the battlefield initiative from the Russians on both the tactical and strategic level.”

Mr Stoltenberg, who held talks with Mr Zelensky during his third wartime visit to Kyiv, told Ukrainians that Nato members had failed to live up to their promises of military aid in recent months, but that the flow of arms and ammunition would increase. “I will ... be very honest with President Zelensky and also with the Rada [Ukrainian parliament] that Nato allies have not delivered what we have promised over the last months,” he said.

Mr Stoltenberg said he expected more commitments soon. “This will make a difference – as the lack of support made a difference,” he said, alluding to Ukrainian setbacks on the battlefield over the past few months.

Over the past month The Independent has seen hundreds of troops with mechanical diggers creating trench systems and bunkers, as well as laying concrete “dragons teeth” anti-tank obstacles, razor wire and minefields as fallback positions miles behind the existing front lines.

The colonel said that, apart from weapons and ammunition supplies, Ukraine was facing a lack of conscripts, although Ukraine’s parliament has passed legislation this month to increase recruitment.

The lack of leave and rotation of troops has left many of Ukraine’s fighters – some serving for two years and more – exhausted. Col Gen Syrskyi said that some of the troops that had recently withdrawn would be replaced with fresh units or those that had been given an opportunity to rest.

The Ukrainian general staff believes Moscow’s main thrusts will be aimed at capturing the two towns of Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar, about 56km (35 miles) and 80km (50 miles) away from Avdiivka respectively. Chasiv Yar is a hilltop fortress and control of it allows artillery to be fired in any direction for miles around. Kyiv believes the Russians want to seize Chasiv Yar before 9 May, an important holiday for the Kremlin, commemorating the Soviet Union victory over the Nazis in the Second World War.

Capturing Chasiv Yar would allow Russian artillery to pummel the last four towns of any size in the Donetsk region remaining in Ukrainian hands – Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka, in preparation for advancing on them.

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The lack of ammunition from the US – critical for artillery, rocket systems and air defences – has left Kyiv's frontline defenders vulnerable to incessant “human wave” ground assaults by Russian infantry, which are accompanied by tanks and other armoured vehicles. As well as aerial attacks.

Russian planes have been used to launch thousands of powerful “KAB” and “FAB” glide bombs that drift tens of miles before zeroing in on their targets, sometimes with the aid of GPS guidance systems. Ukraine has little defence against the bombs, which are launched from miles behind Russia’s frontline and usually out of range of Kyiv’s air defences.

They level the buildings of towns the Russians are keen to capture such as Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk and can devastate Ukrainian troops in bunkers or trenches.

The army colonel The Independent has spoken to said that the provision by the US of ATACM missiles with a 300km (190 mile) range is almost double the range of existing missiles Ukraine possesses. It means that Ukraine will be able to degrade Russia’s air operations from bases in Russian-occupied Crimea, importantly its S-300 and S-400 air defence systems, and to disrupt supplies on the peninsula’s railway.

“They are already restricting the military supplies by railways. The destruction of their air defences is a priority for us in preparation for the arrival of F-16 fighter planes [which have been promised by some Western allies after the Ukrainian pilots and ground crews complete training later this year]. The Russians will still have many more planes and we might not achieve parity in the air against their SU-34s and SU-35s but eliminating Russian air defences will increase the operational options for our F-16s.”

The colonel added that the Ukrainian side is gauging the possibility of its Nato allies, such as neighbouring Poland, coordinating their air defence detection and response systems with those of Ukraine. “We would, ideally, like our allies to use their assets in the same way the US, Britain, France helped to destroy hundreds of missiles and drones fired at Israel by Iran earlier this month.”

Moscow has made no secret of wanting to capture Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv in northeast Ukraine, which is less than 48km (30 miles) from the Russian border. Although some authoritative sources that have spoken to The Independent do not believe the Russians, who have lost a huge portion of their army and equipment, have yet rebuilt the human or weapons resources to launch a massive counterattack.

These Ukrainian sources calculate that if Moscow has not been able to press home its advantage during the last six months, when American supplies, by far the largest share of all provided by Kyiv’s allies, were severely reduced, than it will not be able to make dramatic gains now that the flow of supplies is resuming.

But Col Gen Syrskyi is taking no chances and said that he has forces in place to counter any serious Russian attempt to grab Kharkiv.