Ukraine may be waiting for some time for the jet firepower it wants

Volodymyr Zelensky’s European tour has been about requests for attack jets as the war nears its first year anniversary. But it is likely to be a while before Ukraine gets the air power it wants.

While Britain has offered to train Ukrainian pilots, and France, among other countries, has also expressed interest in doing so, there is prolonged discussion and debate about just what kind of warplanes can be supplied and when that takes place.

There was excitement and a sense of celebration at a Westminster Hall packed with MPs on Wednesday with the Ukrainian president “thanking in advance for powerful English planes” and presenting speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle with the helmet of a Ukrainian pilot inscribed: “We have freedom. Give us wings to protect it.”

Rishi Sunak declared “nothing was off the table” and defence secretary Ben Wallace, we were told, has been tasked with deciding what kind of aircraft Britain can supply to Ukraine.

There were, however, distinct notes of caution 24 hours later. The defence secretary ruled out any immediate transfer of planes to Ukraine saying it would take months to do so. Britain would, instead, focus on providing alternative methods of air warfare, including long-range missiles and drones.

On a visit to Cornwall, the prime minister insisted: “Of course we’re talking about further support.” But, he wanted to stress “the important first step of that journey is to make sure we provide the training for Ukrainian pilots to be able to use that very sophisticated equipment.”

The two aircraft the UK can send to Ukraine are the Eurofighter Typhoon and Lockheed F-35Bs. Only 30 F-35Bs have been delivered by the US so far and it is highly unlikely that these highly expensive and sophisticated planes would be the ones sent. There are around 137 Typhoons, although not all of them operational, and it is from this stock that any aircraft, it is believed, that Ukraine may be supplied.

Boris Johnson has suggested that the UK could easily send a hundred of the Typhoons. But there are problems with this. Mr Wallace, who dismissed the former prime minister’s proposal as “unrealistic,” pointed out the type most likely to be sent, Tranche 1, are not equipped for ground attack.

There is also the issue that the Typhoons will have to fly low to avoid Russian surface-to-air threats and thus their missile capabilities would be less than those of Russian aircraft flying at higher altitudes.

Professor Justin Bronk, an aviation specialist with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), says that “supplying Typhoons to Ukraine would also have major implications for UK defence”.

“The consequence of years of sustained high-tempo operations is an overstretched and worn-out force; with declining aircraft availability at the squadron level due to a shortage of spare parts, engineers leaving the force due to burnout, and pilots unable to get enough high-quality flight training hours to maintain critical skills or train new colleagues. In this context, there would be a very serious cost to pay for providing even a small number of Tranche 1 Typhoons to Ukraine.”

Mr Bronk suggests a far better alternative would be the Swedish Gripen C aircraft, which “is explicitly designed to counter Russian surface-to-air missiles, with an internal electronic warfare suite, and to be easy to maintain and operate from dispersed bases with mobile teams in vehicles.”

The Swedes have announced a $420m (£346m) military aid budget for Ukraine which includes Archer artillery systems, anti-tank missiles and combat vehicles. But they have not offered aircraft.

There is a degree of caution among some European ministers about dispatching warplanes, and expressions of concern by some Nato governments about a direct military confrontation with Russia. Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte, who had said there would be no intrinsic objections to sending planes to Ukraine, observed, “It would be a very big next step.”

After President Zelesnky repeated his request for warplanes in the European parliament, Mr Rutte, speaking to journalists raised the issue of Article 5 of the Nato treaty, which binds the alliance to action if a member state under attack calls for military help.

The decision on aircraft has to be taken “behind closed doors, because there are many sensitive issues to be discussed,” he said.

“You have to make absolutely sure that you are not getting into an Article 5 direct confrontation between Nato and Russia. All these things have to be assessed and as soon as conclusions have been reached you can bring them to the outside world,” he added.

Ukraine is not a Nato member, thus the issue was whether the Kremlin would consider Nato-supplied Ukrainian planes carrying out attacks as an act of war. Any sent to Ukraine would come with the stipulation that they are not to be used for raids inside Russia. But what constitutes Russian Federation has changed after the annexation of Ukrainian territories announced by Vladimir Putin since the conflict began.

Following his London visit and before heading to Brussels on Thursday, Zelensky met Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Schulz in Paris. The French president said: “Russia cannot and must not win this war. As long as Russia continues to attack, we will continue to adapt and moderate the necessary military support to preserve Ukraine and its future.”

The German chancellor, Scholz, has, so far, objected to planes being sent to Kyiv and complained about what he termed rivalry among Nato allies to arm Ukraine. He said: “The question of combat aircraft does not arise at all. I can only advise against entering into a constant competition to outbid each other when it comes to weapons systems ... We preserve and strengthen this cohesion by first preparing decisions confidentially, and only then communicating them.”

Scholz was similarly opposed to the dispatch of German Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, which stopped other Nato states from supplying them as well, as they needed Berlin’s approval for transferring German technology.

The German government only agreed to the Leopard’s being sent when Joe Biden approved the supply of M1 Abrams tanks as well. And it is the American F-16 which remains the most likely aircraft to be sent to Ukraine.

There are F-16s available in various air forces and thus there are supply lines and mechanical support. But it also seems the case that even facing a Russian bear which has been wounded, Nato’s European members would feel safer letting America take the lead.