Drones, missiles and air defence: Ukraine’s fight is increasingly in the skies

As the front line of the war in Ukraine is mired in bloody stalemate, breaking the enemy’s morale via repeated aerial assault is becoming increasingly important.

Recent days have seen an intensification of strikes using missiles and explosive “suicide” drones. On New Year’s Day, Ukraine said 90 drones had been launched by Russia, calling it a record for the months since Moscow’s invasion began.

The explosions from swarms of Russian drones along with scores of missiles and Ukrainian anti-aircraft defences heralded 2024 across Ukraine. Authorities said the attacks continued for 11 hours into Monday morning. Major population centres that were struck included Kherson, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Lviv, Dnipro, Odesa and Lviv. A highrise caught fire in Odesa, with at least one person confirmed dead.

Speaking during a New Year’s Day visit to a military hospital, Russian president Vladimir Putin said Ukraine can expect strikes to intensify.

The current cycle started on Friday, when the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and other cities were struck by huge waves of air attacks.

The Russian strikes killed at least 45 people in Kyiv, and the capital’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, called them the deadliest in his city since Putin launched his invasion in February 2022.

Some 160 people were injured in the capital, and authorities fear that more dead may yet be discovered under the rubble.

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Ukraine retaliated with a mass drone and missile bombardment of its own the following day, which targeted several Russian cities including Moscow. The brunt of the attack fell upon the Russian city of Belgorod, just across the border from Ukraine’s eastern region of Kharkiv. Russian authorities said at least 24 people, mostly civilians, died in that attack.

Since then, the back and forth of drone and missile launches has continued, and Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, took a battering on Sunday. Its regional governor said 28 people had been injured, and that targets had included a hotel, a hospital, and residential buildings.

Friday’s attack on Kyiv appeared to be a retaliation by Moscow for several humiliating strikes carried out by Ukraine. Ukrainian missiles, reportedly British-supplied “Storm Shadows”, badly damaged and may have destroyed a large Russian assault/landing vessel docked in Crimea, a region that has been under Russian occupation since 2014.

Last week Ukraine shot down three Su-34 fighter bombers – some of Russia’s most sophisticated and expensive warplanes – over the Kherson region, likely using missiles from one of the powerful American “Patriot” air defence complexes deployed in Ukraine.

Ukraine has a limited number of these systems, but has been covertly shifting some around the country so that it can surprise unsuspecting Russian planes.

In recent weeks, Ukraine’s primary supplier of weapons, the US, has not been able to agree to the provision of fresh aid because of a bitter dispute in Congress. The Republicans have refused to release billions of dollars in aid until the Democrats dramatically tighten security at America’s southern border.

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The highly emotive issue will be key in presidential elections at the end of this year, and neither of the parties has budged from its entrenched position in the months of wrangling before Congress went into recess for the holidays, leaving the impasse unresolved until legislators return to Washington DC later in January.

Ukraine’s European allies are trying to make up the shortfall in US supplies, but they have not got the capacity to fill the gap left by the American reduction, at least as things stand.

That has narrowed Ukraine’s battlefield options, and the contours of the 600 miles of front line are unlikely to alter substantially, especially as winter weather always hampers mobility. But the ground is not frozen, as relatively moderate temperatures and rains have turned the battlefields into mud, making them impassable for men or vehicles.

Ukraine’s destruction of Russian targets, such as the assault vessel and the fighter bombers, undoubtedly has military value. But Kyiv’s military operations in Ukraine, along with an increasing number of air attacks and special operations in Russia, are designed to give a much-needed boost to Ukrainian morale as the invasion approaches its second anniversary.

In recent months, Ukraine has increased the number of attacks against Russian military targets in Kremlin-occupied parts of the country. Ukrainian special forces have mounted increasingly daring operations deep in Russia itself, far from the front lines.

One Ukrainian soldier who took part in a raid on Russian-occupied Crimea told The Independent: “There are millions of people living in Russia who are ethnically Ukrainian. This is a huge potential force willing to take part in or support Ukrainian missions. Many of them are actually in the Russian military, and they are angry at the atrocities they see Russia committing in Ukraine. You shouldn’t be surprised if one of them crashes a helicopter right into the heart of the Kremlin.”

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In his address to Russians on the eve of the new year, Putin omitted to mention the war on Ukraine. By contrast, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky’s New Year’s Eve broadcast was all about the war, although there was little mention of the front lines.

An emphasis on Ukraine becoming self-sufficient reflects unease prompted by the reduction in military supplies from the US, and the possibility that Donald Trump will return to the White House means there is a chance that all such assistance could end.

Zelensky said that Ukraine is gearing up its industry for the mass production of weapons, military vehicles, artillery, ammunition, and the means to deliver seaborne “greetings” – a reference to strikes against Russian positions in Crimea. His pledge that Ukraine will manufacture one million drones in 2024 underlined the idea that Kyiv’s military intends increasingly to bring the war to Russia’s own territory, to corrode morale and undermine Putin’s authority.

Kyiv is also counting on the idea that US-manufactured F-16 fighter planes donated by Western allies to its air force will help turn the balance of the conflict taking place in the air – which until now has been firmly in Moscow’s favour, with Russia’s stock of warplanes being far more modern than Ukraine’s, not to mention more substantial.

Although the excellent performance by Ukraine’s air defence systems has prevented Russia from fully exploiting its advantage in terms of the number of planes it possesses, Ukraine’s lack of aircraft to support advances by its ground forces has been blamed for disappointing results in a 2023 counteroffensive that failed to retake much Russian-occupied territory.

Versatile F-16s can carry a range of powerful weapons, and would allow Ukrainians to support advances against heavily defended Russian frontline positions and to strike artillery positions and supply depots deep behind enemy lines.

Ukrainian pilots and ground crew are being trained to operate the planes by Western instructors abroad, and the first cohort are expected to complete their training later this year.

Zelensky said: “Our pilots are already mastering F-16s and we will certainly see them in our skies. So that our enemies will surely see what our wrath really means.”