On Ukraine’s frontline, Kyiv’s troops know US funding is vital to keep them alive

Ukraine is firing thousands of shells a day on the frontlines against the forces of Vladimir Putin – and believes it needs to be firing thousands more to try and push back Russia's troops.

Speaking to soldiers on the frontline in the south and the east of Ukraine, two of the major theatres of battle, they have been calling for more ammunition and weapons for months. European weapons manufacturers suggest that Ukraine may need up to 1.5 million artillery shells a year. This requires money and time, two things that Kyiv believes it doesn't have enough of.

The EU has been seeking to ramp up production, as has the US. However, the bloc has said it will miss its target of having delivered 1 million shells by March. In terms of military aid, the US has offered £38bn, Germany £14.5bn and the UK £6bn, according to the Kiel Institute, which tracks military support. In terms of total funds EU nations and institutions have offered more than £113bn in total aid, with the US offering more than £60bn.

But further US funding is now under threat. The White House has said money is running out and Congress has blocked tens of billions of dollars in future funding in a vicious partisan fight. Republican members of both the US House of Representatives and the Senate, egged on by hardcore supporters of Putin-admiring former president, Donald Trump, continue to block president Joe Biden’s efforts to push through fresh aid package for Ukraine.

This American political quagmire will reinforce Putin’s conviction that Western “fatigue” will eventually radically reduce assistance for Kyiv, opening the way for Russian victory against a much more vulnerable Ukraine.

Ukrainian and American leaders have warned that if US aid for Ukraine remains stalled Ukraine could be defeated in the war triggered by Putin’s full-blown invasion in February 2022 with disastrous consequences not just for Ukraine but the entire “democratic” world.

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Andriy Yermak, head of president Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration, has said the loss of US aid risks a “very high possibility” that Ukraine would lose the war and make “impossible” retrieving Russian-occupied areas.

Ukraine depends chiefly on the US for the largest share of ammunition for everything from assault rifles to shells for Western-provided artillery and Soviet-era armaments. Zelensky is due to meet Biden on Tuesday, having taken up an invitation from the US president. “As Russia ramps up its missile and drone strikes against Ukraine, the leaders will discuss Ukraine’s urgent needs and the vital importance of the United States’ continued support at this critical moment,” the White House said.

The morale and the determination to fight on among both Ukraine’s military and civilians remains astonishingly strong despite an ambitious Ukrainian counteroffensive, which began this summer, having so far not achieved its major objectives to punch a route through to the Azov Sea in order to sever Moscow’s vital supply lines from Russia to its troops in southeastern Ukraine and Crimea, occupied by Russia.

Ukrainian forces have made some gains and have established a presence on the eastern, left bank of the Dnipro River in the key southern Kherson region after audacious waterborne landings. And they have mostly prevented any significant Russian advances, and hit some key Russian ships in Crimean ports. But the action on the frontline has become a battle of inches.

That the previous solid bilateral American political support for Ukraine has upset Ukrainians, but many have also become dismayed that divisions among Ukrainian politicians, who previously tried to present a united front, have increasingly surfaced publicly.

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A debate has arisen over whether Ukraine should hold presidential elections next year. Elections during wartime are suspended according to the Ukrainian constitution. And most Ukrainians are opposed to a wartime election, pointing to the practical difficulties of enabling safe and free voting conditions for millions of Ukrainians displaced from their homes and millions of others under Russian occupation.

Most would agree that wartime conditions justify some freedoms being restricted but some influential Ukrainian politicians have questioned whether Zelensky’s administration has got the balance right. Kyiv’s mayor and former world heavyweight boxing champion, Vitali Klitschko, told a Swiss newspaper that Zelensky was becoming increasingly autocratic and riding roughshod over those who differ from his views or those of his administration.

Klitschko, a previous and possibly future presidential contender, has said he does not favour elections until peace comes. But his autocracy accusations aimed at Zelensky have found some traction.

Another fissure in the previous overwhelming show of political unity are bitter exchanges between Zelensky and his predecessor as president, Petro Poroshenko. Zelensky crushed Poroshenko in the 2019 election winning 73 per cent of the vote. Polls show that Zelensky’s popularity increased over the course of the war. However, Poroshenko has not concealed his presidential ambitions and has sought to show he is still a political player by maintaining high-level contacts in the US and EU.

Earlier this month, Ukraine’s SBU intelligence service prevented Poroshenko leaving the country for meetings that included one with Hungary’s leader, pro-Putin Viktor Orban, who opposes aid for Ukraine and membership in the EU or Nato.

The SBU claimed Moscow planned to exploit Poroshenko’s meeting with Orban to damage Ukraine. Although polls show that most Ukrainians loathe Orban, there are clearly Ukrainians who would vote for Poroshenko if he ran in a future election and will have been disturbed by his treatment.

This combined with the US funding spat in Washington, does not provide the image of a united front that Western nations and Kyiv believe is vital in combatting Putin. Even if the deadlock in the US Congress is broken, the current impasse is a boon for Putin. It guarantees the prolongation of slaughter on Ukraine’s battlefields and raises the Kremlin’s hopes of victory.

British intelligence believes Russia has started a repeat of its focused missile campaign of last winter to destroy Ukraine’s electricity-generating infrastructure and lower morale along with plunging temperatures.

Marine Captain Dmytro Pletenchuk told The Independent what he and many other Ukrainians fear would be the consequences of a defeat for his country.

“This is a fight of two diametrically opposed systems: democracy and totalitarianism ... Ukraine is simply, for the moment, the battlefield in that contest.

“If they capture Ukraine, the Russians will exterminate people like me, my brother who is also a fighter, and the rest of my comrades.”

US funding is one of the key pillars supporting Ukraine. Delay has a direct impact on the frontline. A complete failure of funding is something Kyiv and its troops dare not think about.