Ukraine’s ‘D-Day’ offensive is going to need all the help it can get

Ukraine’s much-anticipated counteroffensive has had so much hype, it even has its own cinematic promotional trailer. Against the backdrop of video game music, Ukrainian soldiers shout “I am going to destroy the enemies of our homeland!”

“Our decisive offensive!” they add, as tanks roar across the screen. And that phrase is a carefully chosen one.

The operation, full details of which remain a closely guarded secret, has been nicknamed Ukraine’s D-Day (in reference to the Second World War operation that, coincidentally, also took place in the month of June).

The Ukrainians have used the plan to successfully convince Western allies to go outside their comfort zone and send increasingly sophisticated weaponry – including the long-awaited German Leopard tanks and American Bradleys.

This week, Ukrainian defence ministry officials told me that Kyiv is hoping the counteroffensive will also be the compelling factor in greenlighting the delivery of F-16 fighter jets so that the country can finally match Moscow’s devastating air superiority. A key meeting of Nato defence ministers is taking place right now in Brussels, where a potential fighter jet coalition is expected to be discussed.

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The Ukrainian military has, for its part, been busy, reportedly creating a dozen new armoured brigades (of around 3,500 soldiers each) for the operation. Nine of them have been trained by the West, Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said back in April. The Ukrainian interior ministry has also confirmed the formation of eight new “storm”  brigades, comprising some 40,000 soldiers in total, following an aggressive recruitment campaign.

And this is because timing – along with results – is critical. Kyiv knows that the only way to counter the inevitability of world fatigue, particularly after a gruelling winter of deadlock, is to make lightning gains, or mount a successful “decisive offensive”, to use its own phrase.

In November, in the southern region of Kherson, after Russian forces dramatically withdrew from the region’s capital and across the Dnipro River, I saw that unfurl in real time. Exhausted Ukrainian commanders told me that, while this kind of win solidifies global support, memories are short.

“We can’t just sit around and celebrate, we know we will need to do this again soon,” said one special forces commander prophetically, as shelling rumbled in the background.

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But this time, repetition is going to be hard. The chief reason is that Russia has had a year to build effective defence lines.

Over the last few months in particular, it has heavily fortified its positions all the way from its western borders with Ukraine to occupied Crimea – saturating the battlefield with minefields, anti-tank ditches, trenches, and rows of concrete “dragon’s teeth” barricades.

The most heavily fortified regions appear – at least from satellite imagery and talk on the ground – to be in the strategic south of the country, where Russia has forged its much-prized land bridge to Crimea.

There, in an oblast called Zaporizhzhia, Ukrainian drone commanders, artillery brigades and infantry soldiers told me they had been watching Russian forces build up every day. “They are digging in hard,” a young drone operator codenamed Odesa said in March, as we hid in a shed a few hundred metres from a Russian-occupied village.

“They are collecting their forces, their machines, their guns, we see it all,” he added, showing me drone footage of a convoy of armoured trucks.

So far in this counteroffensive, Ukrainians have made modest gains – announcing this week that they have liberated at least seven villages in Zaporizhzhia and the neighbouring Donetsk region, an area that totals around 90 sq km. Every day they announce that a few hundred more metres of territory have been regained.

They have also suffered some losses, including a few of the newly supplied Leopard tanks and Bradleys, according to footage gleefully shared in Russian social media groups.

But experts claim that the bulk of Ukraine’s counteroffensive forces remain backstage, for now. A tactic no doubt deployed to allow time to scan and test Russia’s defensive lines for weak spots.

And if any other of Ukraine’s successful advances are to judge by, we won’t truly know exactly what is happening until a victory is announced.

In September, after months of speculation about an operation in the south, Ukraine spectacularly liberated swathes of ground on the other side of the country in Kharkiv, which lies around 600km to the north.

This counteroffensive might have its own promotional trailer and daily Telegram updates, but nothing is yet clear. For this D-Day, expect misdirection and all forms of surprise.