Turks warned that joining EU depends on Cyprus solution

The European Union heaped new pressure on Turkey yesterday to help to break the deadlock over Cyprus in a last-ditch effort to save a United Nations plan to reunite the divided island.

For the first time, the European Commission said Turkey's ambitions to join the EU would be on ice until there was a solution to the Cyprus problem. The comments, from the European commissioner for enlargement, Günter Verheugen, are designed to force Ankara to exert maximum pressure on the leader of the Turkish Cypriots, Rauf Denktash, to accept the UN reunification plan. Mr Denktash is seen as the main obstacle to a UN deal, which would allow a reunified Cyprus to join the EU in May next year.

The Turkish Cypriot leader and his opposite number from the Greek Cypriot community, Tassos Papadopoulos, have been given until Monday to agree to hold referendums on the UN plan. If there is no deal, Greek-controlled Cyprus will be admitted alone.

The UN blueprint, which envisages a loose confederation for Cyprus with wide-ranging autonomy for the two communities, is seen as the best chance of a breakthrough since the island was divided in 1974.

The latest diplomatic arm-twisting follows firm indications that Mr Denktash intends to say "no" on Monday. On Saturday he argued that Northern Cyprus "cannot go to referendum under someone else's orders", adding: "Asking for a 'yes' or 'no' on ... [the UN] plan is very deceptive and wrong. Instead of offering results, it will fool people."

Diplomats believe only intense pressure from Turkey can change his mind before Monday. One said the prospects of a deal were "very slight" but added: "If the Turkish political elite decides to play the game, there is enough time."

Turkey is a candidate for EU membership but has yet to begin negotiations with Brussels. EU leaders have agreed that membership talks with Turkey could start in 2005, based on its progress on meeting human rights standards.

The status of Cyprus had not been mentioned, but yesterday Mr Verheugen warned that Turkey would be "well advised to reflect over the consequence of a non-settlement [of Cyprus] for its EU aspirations". This would mean, he added, that Ankara "would face a situation where Turkey does not recognise one of the EU's member states. It is difficult to see how it would be possible to start accession negotiations under such circumstances".

In January hopes of a deal were high when Turkish Cypriots took to the streets in support of the UN plan. But while the leader of the Turkey's ruling Justice and Development party, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has distanced himself from Mr Denktash, the Turkish Cypriot leader still has strong support from the armed forces.

The reunification process has also been a casualty of the Iraq crisis. Under pressure to accept American troops on its soil, the Turkish government has been trying to overcome popular opposition and has been loath to force the issue.

Recent Greek Cypriot elections produced a new president in Mr Papadopoulos, with a less compromising approach. But EU officials say the real roadblock remains on the Turkish side. One official argued: "Denktash is the obstacle. As long as he is not under strong pressure from Turkey then he will not be expected to move."

Kofi Annan, the UN secretary general, plans to meet Mr Denktash and Mr Papadopoulos on Monday in The Hague to ask whether they will submit his plans to a referendum, which would be held on 30 March, two weeks before Cyprus is due to sign its treaty of accession to the EU.