Is anti-lockdown Switzerland becoming the new Sweden?

When it comes to the Swiss government’s handling of the Covid-19 crisis, Jennifer Kohler is not quite sure what to think.

“I spoke to someone who works for an old people’s home and she told me horror stories,” said the Canton Zurich resident, who works in a dentist's office.  

For her, the second wave of the pandemic feels closer to home than the first – she regularly hears of people who have been infected. But she also knows restaurant and bar owners who are struggling, and is not keen on another lockdown.

“It’s difficult to know what we have to do,” she said. “Which way is best? No way.”

Usually seen as one of the world’s most socially progressive countries, Switzerland has set itself apart from its western European neighbours by not locking down amid the pandemic’s second wave despite skyrocketing cases. 

On a per-capita basis, it has quickly become one of the worst-affected countries on the continent, with 740 cases per 100,000 people over the past 14 days, compared with 577 in Sweden, 503 in France, and 471 in the UK. (The situation appears to have stabilised somewhat from a peak earlier in November, but numbers may not be accurate due to inadequate testing.)

Kohler’s equivocation offers a snapshot of the Swiss position on the issue, which has divided the country’s 8.5 million residents. Authorities acknowledge the severity of the health situation but continue to avoid introducing meaningful restrictions.

On 28 October, as President Macron of neighbouring France was announcing a strict second lockdown for his nation, the Swiss federal council relaxed rules for people entering from abroad. It also announced a mild set of restrictions, including an 11pm curfew for bars and restaurants, a ban on events with more than 50 people, and a ban on sporting activities with more than 15 people.  

But as intensive care units reach capacity, a Geneva-based World Health Organisation special envoy has slammed Switzerland’s response, while the government’s own Covid science taskforce has called for stricter measures.

According to the finance minister, Switzerland “cannot afford” a second lockdown. The Alpine country’s traditionally liberal market approach means business and trade are paramount.  

But Florin Bilbiie, a macroeconomist at the University of Lausanne, points out that the public debt-to-GDP ratio of 30 per cent is one of the lowest in the world.

“There is a consensus among epidemiologists that the longer you wait, the stricter the measures will have to be and the longer they will have to last,” he said. “Since containment measures are indeed costly economically, these costs get compounded.”

Bilbiie, who launched a petition signed by at least 60 economists calling for a lockdown, said the government has been slow to act in part because of pro-business lobbyists. He also argued that a stronger central government would have passed measures more quickly.

Switzerland’s emphasis on consensus politics also means extreme actions are rarely taken. According to Jürg Martin Gabriel, professor emeritus at university ETH Zurich, the federalist system was designed to “counterbalance excessive pluralism, to avoid extreme solutions, and to promote stability”.  

During the first wave, the federal government took control of pandemic management from the 26 cantonal governments and imposed a countrywide lockdown. That surprised many, according to Gabriel. It is unlikely that such a move would be accepted a second time.  

Federalism runs deep in Switzerland, where each cantonal government has its own constitution, parliament, courts and taxation system. But that makes it more difficult to come to national agreement, Gabriel said, stressing the regions’ differences in size, density and political leanings.  

While some cantons, such as Geneva, have closed restaurants, cinemas and gyms, others have not imposed any additional rules beyond the federal government’s baseline restrictions.

Roland Wermelinger, a spokesman for Canton Glarus in east central Switzerland, said that “further measures or even a regional lockdown were not taken [there], even when the situation is very tense,” because hospital capacities had not yet been exhausted.

But according to Bilbiie, leaving containment measures up to the cantons enables freeriding and creates a classic prisoner’s dilemma. Currently, residents of shut-down Geneva can hop over to neighbouring Vaud for their shopping, while those in Jura can pop to nearby Bern for a bite out.

Bilbiie noted that lobby pressure is typically stronger at the local and regional levels, too.

Then there is the deeply held belief that Switzerland is a “special case”, as recently argued in one Swiss-German newspaper. The country has historically avoided global crises like wars and natural disasters.  

“We do think sometimes we’re better, it's true, and that may hurt us sometimes,” said Gabriel. “We look down on the Germans, we look down on the Italians, we look down on the French – we're snobs.”

The “special case” mindset was reinforced when Switzerland suffered relatively few Covid deaths in the spring, and did not have to lock down as severely as neighbours. At the time, schools and most shops were closed, and gatherings in public spaces were limited to five people, but there were no federal restrictions on movement within the country like those introduced in France and Italy.

By late spring, Switzerland was among the first European countries to reopen for business. Even as late as last month, the sense of immunity persisted – on 1 October, the government lifted a ban on gatherings of more than 1,000 people, and most indoor exercise classes were fully booked until mid-October.  

Andreas Cerny, an infectious disease specialist in Ticino, said Switzerland relaxed too early after the first wave.

“The speed with which the measures were lifted was too fast,” he said. “Between the single steps, the authorities should have waited not only two weeks but longer to keep the numbers down.”

He noted the “progressive and sustained” increase in cases since mid-June, when many Schengen borders reopened and Swiss people returned to shops, gyms and nightclubs.

Now, some are finding the government messaging confusing.  

“I think it’s a question of how to measure it, because one day they say it’s not that tragic and the next day it is,” said Yvonne, a tax department employee and mother. “It’s difficult to know which information is correct.”

She thinks the situation is still under control and does not merit another lockdown. Others are not convinced.

Sascha, a fashion-industry worker who lives near Lake Constance, would like to see more restrictions. He blamed the federal government’s “liberal attitude” for giving people a false sense of security.

“It’s like, ‘Oh it’s not that bad,’ because they have all the data,” he said. “Everyone’s still quite laissez-faire here – like in Sweden.”