Spain population: Economic woes sees more deaths than births registered for first time since civil war - and forecasters say it will continue

For the first time since the civil war in the 1930s, more people in Spain are dying than are being born.

The Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE) in Madrid recorded 19,000 more deaths than births in the first half of this year. While a similar situation occurred briefly at the end of the 1990s, experts now forecast that the trend will continue for the foreseeable future.

As many as half a million people were killed during the Spanish Civil War – nearly as many fled the fighting and moved overseas – in the three years it lasted between 1936 and 1939. During the global influenza outbreak after the First World War in 1918, almost of quarter of million Spaniards lost their lives.

Both events led to sharp declines in Spain’s net population, but the trends were quickly reversed. The Spanish dictator following the Civil War, Francisco Franco, encouraged large families and was known to hand out an annual National Birth Prize to the largest.

Rather than conflict or disease, the cause of this year’s proportionately higher death rate is likely to be economic, with people worried about job security, or deciding against having children altogether. The trend exacerbates the problem of an already falling Spanish population as people leave the country in search of work overseas.

The INE predicts that the gulf between the number of deaths and births will continue to grow between now and 2062. The agency said it expects Spain’s population, now about 46.8 million, to fall by more than a million in the next 15 years, and by 5.6 million over the next 50 years.

“There are lots of consequences of this fall in population,” said Antonio Barroso of trend forecaster Teneo Intelligence. “Firstly, there is a long term issue with pensions – who is going to pay to look after Spain’s aging population? And, of course, it is bad for growth.”

Spain – the fifth most populous nation in the EU – has had a declining population for the last three years, but the first six months of the year was the first time that the official death rate overtook the number of people being born since 1999.

The effect is that while talented youngsters seek a better standard of living abroad, the Spanish population, as well as shrinking, is also getting older. Spain now has the 10th oldest population on earth, with the average age 43.2.

But worryingly for officials in Madrid, Spain is expected to leap to fourth place by 2030, when the average Spaniard will be older than 50 – a third of all Spaniards will be older than 60 by 2060, according to estimates.

Spain now has one of the fastest growing economies in Europe – GDP is expected to top three per cent next year according to some analysts – a point continually emphasised by Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, who is facing a general election on 20 December.

Polls, however, consistently point to Mr Rajoy’s centre-right government not gaining enough seats to maintain its majority. Despite recovering, the Spanish economy has not yet made up the ground it lost during the crash, which led many migrants to leave.

“Many people who had moved to Spain before the crash left and they have not come back,” said Mr Barroso. “The only ways to stave off the long-term problems... is by relying on migration, or giving greater incentives to work.” Despite improving in recent years, the official Spanish unemployment rate is still above 20 per cent.

Syria 9.7 per cent fall due to civil war

Cook Islands 3 per cent as a result of emigration

Moldova 1 per cent following a low birth rate

Saint Pierre and Miquelon 1 per cent due to emigration

Bulgaria 0.8 per cent from a combination of low birth rate, high abortion rate and emigration

Estonia 0.7 per cent because of a low birth rate

Puerto Rico 0.7 per cent as a result of low birth rate and poor economic climate

Ukraine 0.6 per cent due to emigration and civil war