Spain’s right-wing PP secures narrow election win – but weeks of tough coalition talks ahead

Spain's conservative People's Party (PP) secured a win against the ruling Socialists in a close election race on Sunday night – but without a clear majority, leaving the country likely facing weeks of tough coalition negotiations.

The PP had 136 seats, compared with the Socialists with 122 seats, after 99.9 per cent of the votes were counted, leaving both parties short of a majority in the 350-seat parliament. Although the Socialists had fared better than expected.

Polls had predicted an overall victory for the PP but with no party winning a resounding victory, a hung parliament seems the most likely outcome.

Vox, the far-right party, had won 33 seats – a significant fall from 52 in the last election in 2019 – while the far-left Sumar party had 31 seats.

With the PP set to win the most votes it could still form a coalition with Vox, but the two may need a handful of votes from smaller parties to gain a parliamentary majority. But that might prove difficult given that many of the smaller regional parties have expressed concern over smoothing a path for Vox. Such a coalition would be the first time a far-right party entered government since the death of fascist dictator General Francisco Franco in 1975.

The Socialists (PSOE) would have more than 150 seats with Sumar, and could potentially try to strike their own deals with regional parties to gain a majority. But that would itself require weeks of careful negotiation. Earlier, millions cast their votes in sweltering heat as the country went to the polls in a summer election for the first time.

Some elderly voters collapsed in the heat at polling stations in Palma in Mallorca so urns had to be moved to a terrace outside.

A protester, angered that the election was called during the holiday season, entered a polling booth wearing flippers and a snorkel.

Spain’s Socialist prime minister Pedro Sanchez called the summer election after the left-wing coalition suffered poor results in local elections in May, but his gamble to try to out-manoeuvre his opponents may have backfired.

Analysts said a PP-Vox coalition could bring problems for Spain if the two parties clashed over cultural issues and climate change, which the hard-right party denies. Sanchez’s government has passed progressive laws on euthanasia, transgender rights, abortion and animal rights.

Vox, which champions bullfighting and family values, has vowed to repeal these if it forms part of the government. The PP opposes Vox’s stance on these social issues, and this is where a potential coalition government could come unstuck.

Despite this, the PP and Vox have agreed coalitions in Valencia, Castile and Leon and Extremadura.

The conservative leader has suggested if his party wins enough votes, then the Socialists could abstain and allow the PP to rule with a simple majority – but Sanchez has rejected this.

The PP’s leader, Alberto Nunez Feijoo has been helped by the absence of the only other centre-right party Ciudadanos which has suffered poor results and opted not to stand.

Until the emergence of a far-left Podemos party ten years ago and Ciudadanos, the Socialists and the PP swapped control of the government after every election.

Jose Ignacio Torreblanca, head of the Madrid office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank, said the success of Spain’s two main parties in Sunday's election showed the stability of Spain.

“Spain’s social democratic and Christian democrat parties are still strong and it shows that Spain is not as polarized as people say. We are not a split society like America,” he told The Independent.

Torreblanca said the PP would struggle to form a coalition with the far-right Vox.

“This is why Feijoo has said he would prefer to talk to the Socialists rather than form a government with Vox. There are several issues in which PP and Vox do not agree,” he said.

As the horse-trading between political parties gets under way for real on Monday, Feijoo will have to judge whether he can stand alone or must think the unthinkable and allow Vox on board.

“Vox will cause problems in the government without a doubt. Vox has said it wants ministries like culture or agriculture. This could cause problems as they oppose climate change. It will not be a peaceful government,” Pablo Simón, a political science expert at the Carlos III University in Madrid, said.

Many Spaniards were furious at being called out to vote at the height of the sweltering summer when they are on holiday.

The postal service reported on Saturday that postal votes had set a record of 2.47 million, as many people chose to cast their ballot from the beach or mountains.

Lola García, who went to vote in Barcelona, said the heat was “insufferable” inside the polling station in a school.

The 56-year-old police officer cast her vote for Vox because she said the party backed law and order.

“We are becoming overcome with drugs coming into this country. When illegal immigrants come in they usually cause crime,” she said outside the polling station.

Others were worried about the prospect that Vox would get a taste of power.

“This party is a throwback to the Forties and Fifties and the era of Franco. They want to turn the clock back. Lots of young people are voting for them because they see it as a form of rebellion. Vox is anti-system,” Carlos Roca, 47, a bank manager, said as he cast his vote for the Socialists in Barcelona.