Fugitive Catalan separatist Carles Puigdemont has vowed to return to Spain – and could upend the government

Fugitive separatist Carles Puigdemont has vowed to return to Spain seven years after fleeing the country, seeking to once again become the president of the Catalan region.

Puigdemont faces possible charges related to a failed independence bid in 2017, which forced him into exile in Belgium. He also faces another probe by an investigative judge into allegations he was the head of an internet-based group called Democratic Tsunami that organised protests in Barcelona and other parts of Catalonia that turned violent in 2019.

The door to campaigning in the Catalan elections, scheduled for 12 May, has been opened by a controversial amnesty law. Pedro Sanchez, the Spanish prime minister, agreed to absolve him and hundreds of others facing possible charges – as part of a deal with two Catalan parties to enable him to form a new government following an inconclusive election last summer.

It has sparked large demonstrations across Spain with the opposition conservative People’s Party and the far-right Vox party vowing to derail the legislation. The amnesty has made it through the lower house of Spain’s parliament but will face an uphill battle in the Senate. It is expected to return to the lower house for final confirmation in around two months. Puigdemont has said he will return by 12 May, even if the amnesty bill has not yet been passed.

“I have decided to run in the next elections for Catalonia’s parliament,” he said at a press conference in Elne, a small French town about 20 miles from the border with Spain on Thursday. He vowed to complete the job of independence he had started.

“My priority is to end with success what we started in October 2017,” he said.

Famous for his Beatles-style mop, Puigdemont’s decision adds a fresh dose of volatility to Spanish politics. Vowing to pursue the unilateral road to an independent Catalonia, which caused Spain’s deepest political crisis in decades with the vote in 2017, will not be welcomed by Sanchez, who has tried to turn the page on this crisis. But when Puigdemont does return to Barcelona he will be met by adoring supporters.

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Analysts say the snap Catalan elections and the presence of Puigdemont could fracture the delicate alliance between Sanchez’s ruling Socialist Workers’ Party and his two Catalan partners – with the moderate Esquerra Catalunya de Republicana (ERC) and Puigdemont’s hardline separatist Junts per Catalunya [Together for Catalonia] having backed the left-wing coalition.

Lluis Orriols, a political expert at the Carlos III University in Madrid, said Puigdemont’s presence could have far-reaching consequences. “The Catalan elections are a severe reverse for the socialists because it breaks the balancing act whereby they support the ERC in Catalonia and vice-versa in the Spanish parliament,” he tells The Independent. “Puigdemont and these elections could clearly destabilise an equilibrium which was already extremely fragile for the government of Spain. We are already seeing this in the rejection of the 2024 budget.”

Without the support of the ERC, Spain’s government has delayed passing of the country’s latest budget until next year.

Sanchez has said Catalonia would only move forward if it was “united”.

“For that, it needs an inclusive political approach, without recriminations, bitterness or grudges, one that is committed to coexistence and Catalonia’s progress,” he said in Brussels, where he was attending an EU leaders summit.

While in exile, Puigdemont lived at the House of the Republic in Waterloo in Belgium and kept up a long-distance relationship with his wife and two daughters, sometimes holidaying in the south of France.

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“He is an important figure among separatists, but he is very divorced from what is really going on here now,” says a source in the ERC, a party which has no love for Puigdemont.

Josep Ramoneda, a political commentator, says Catalan society has moved on since the days when Puigdemont’s unilateral declaration of independence.

Observers said if Puigdemont does return to Catalonia he will find a very different place. In 2017, independence estelada flags flew from almost every building in Barcelona and yellow ribbons were painted for those who were arrested by Spanish authorities. Today, these are a rare sight in the Catalan capital but are still common in villages where support for independence remains strong.

“I don't expect this to mean a return to the independence process 2.0. There is a feeling that we don’t need confrontation now. The socialist government has backed dialogue and introduced this amnesty law,” Ramoneda says.

“If Puigdemont returns before the amnesty law comes into effect he will be detained,” Ramoneda adds. "But I don’t expect that to have the same effect as the arrest of Trump in the US. It will be among some separatists but not the majority.”

Pablo Simon, a political expert at the Carlos III University in Madrid, says Puigdemont will always divide Spanish society. “Whatever the result of this election [in Catalonia] he is a polarising figure,” he says.

But, Ramoneda says that if Puigdemont returns to Spain he will unite his party: “The only thing that keeps them together is Puigdemont.”

And that could mean trouble for Spain’s government.