2018 Winter Olympics: Russia looks set to be allowed to compete in South Korea despite British concerns over doping

The International Olympic Committee has begun delivering its first sanctions since the Russia doping scandal that was exposed last year. With the first six punishments delivered this month all targeting skiers rather than state officials, Russia can now look forward to defying expectations and being cleared to compete at the Winter Olympics in South Korea.

How Russia got to this point, with an audacious public relations campaign involving Netflix whistleblowers on one side and the opaque cyber-hackers “Fancy Bears” on the other, merits inspection, for it mirrors the Facebook campaigning that split the US electorate. The tech giant last week revealed that as many as 126 million Americans of voting age might have been reached by divisive propaganda advertising in the run-up to the US election. In the year since then, another communications war has been fought, with the results again going the way Russia wanted.

Russia was given licence to compete at the Rio Olympics last year and looks increasingly likely to compete at the next Winter Games too. It may even go on to top the medal table, as it did in the Sochi Games it hosted four year ago, unifying the nation a month before it heads to the polls to re-elect Vladimir Putin, assuming he stands again. Russia, the machine, is always one step ahead.

Canadian lawyer Richard McLaren was saluted for his work last year when he “uncovered state-sponsored doping”. But his biggest finds were later revealed to have been stumbled upon, rather than unearthed. Professor McLaren was competent and logical in identifying Grigory Rodchenkov, the director of Moscow’s Anti-Doping Centre, as a suspect when doping sample bottles were shown to have suspicious scratches on them. But he was lucky in the sense that Rodchenkov was simultaneously – bizarrely and recklessly – making a documentary with an American cyclist turned amateur filmmaker, Bryan Fogel, about how easy it is for wannabes to get away with doping.

Rodchenkov confessed all to Fogel about the cocktails he supplied to Olympians after watching Prof McLaren present his report to a televised press conference. Rodchenkov fled to America. The two of them then shared their story – and Rodchenkov’s doping spreadsheets – with The New York Times and the World Anti-Doping Agency (Wada). It made for a watchable Netflix documentary-thriller (Icarus) but more than that, it gave some much-needed meat to part two of McLaren’s report. As a Wada spokesperson told The Independent this week, Rodchenkov’s involvement “corroborated and supported” McLaren’s initial, tentative findings.

With or without DNA evidence, several Russian Olympians who won medals in Sochi are expected to be suspended this month, the IOC have indicated, but Russia itself will escape sanctions, as it has consistently throughout the doping saga.

The “roadmap to compliance” Wada agreed with Russia has played into Russia’s hands, rather than served to reform the country. Athletes’ “blood passports” have been shared: this will potentially incriminate them but not officials. Access to the Moscow testing lab has persistently been delayed: this has shielded Russia from forensic evidence of tampering from being obtained. Both parties have agreed and implemented a turnover of staff at Rusada, the Russian Sports Ministry and the Russian Olympic Association: this may help Russia from getting out of the most contentious requirement to become fully compliant again, namely admitting guilt. It is difficult to see how this is realistic or will be insisted upon when the leading figures have all either been sacked, fled to America, or, in two cases, died of heart attacks having previously shown no signs of ill health.

A fudge will not go down well in Britain. “We firmly believes that the entire roadmap has to be complied with before Russia can take part in the Winter Games in order to protect clean British and international athletes so they can compete on a level playing field,” UK Anti-Doping (Ukad) chief executive Nicole Sapstead told The Independent.

Niels de Vos, the head of UK Athletics, says even an admission of guilt wouldn’t be enough for him to countenance Russia escaping justice. “I’d find it personally hard to accept remorse because I’ve seen up close and personal the impact Russian cheating has had on British athletes. I’m not against the suspension and I’m not pro it going any time soon,” de Vos said last week at an event held by UK Athletics to mark the achievements of black British coaches.

Other athletics federations are receptive to Russia being given a second chance, however. Jamaica’s Warren Blake says many national federation presidents feel Russia has demonstrated enough to be forgiven, but that they are scared to “vote with their conscience because of [repercussions] from open voting”.

The UK assumes the moral high ground but this has been eroded through an effective smear campaign from Russian cyber hacking outfit Fancy Bears. Back in July, while Ukad was fulfilling its specially designated role to process Russian “therapeutic use exemption” applications, Fancy Bears was leaking details of suspicions raised by Wada testers over Mo Farah’s integrity. There is no suggestion of wrongdoing but the campaign worked in both stripping Britain of its moral authority and in turning the British press on its own. While British journalists and fans debated Farah’s ethical fibre, they and the world became less judgemental of Russia.

We will continue to get details in the coming days over how alleged penetration of Facebook divided America in the run-up to last year’s election over the pond. “Divide and rule” is an equally effective policy in sporting politics too. Russia does not need Wada compliance or British approval to compete at the Olympics in February, it just needs the backing of the International Olympic Committee. This will likely be granted in December after it gained the upper hand in the PR war. With Wada lacking teeth and failing to produce a smoking gun ­­– and UK sport undermined by innuendo – Russia has little reason to fear exclusion from Korea in February. Chalk it down as another win for Russia on the international stage.