The end of the Wagner mutiny has tightened Putin’s grip on Belarus – but Lukashenko won’t care

The talks between the two men were “very difficult”. “They immediately blurted out such vulgar things it would make any mother cry. The conversation was hard, and as I was told, masculine.”

Vadim Gigin, a Belarusian propagandist, was describing the negotiations between his country’s president, Alexander Lukashenko, and Yevgeny Prigozhin, which brought the extraordinary attempted coup in Russia to an end after a tumultuous 24 hours.

The deal they reached, under whose terms the Kremlin agreed to drop criminal charges against Prigozhin and the members of his Wagner mercenary group who took part in the rebellion, averted a catastrophic civil war and, arguably, may have saved Vladimir Putin from being overthrown.

Dmitry Peskov, the spokesperson for the Kremlin, said the Belarusian president had known Prigozhin for two decades, they were frank with each other, and that this familiarity had helped to secure the ceasefire and prevent further bloodshed.

Lukashenko emerged from the chaos a clear winner, establishing his value firmly with Putin and the Russian hierarchy. It is possible, too, that he could end up with his own private army if a sizeable number of Wagner fighters follow Prigozhin into Belarus as part of the agreement.

Speaking in Minsk about his role in ending the crisis, the Belarusian president was the personification of modesty. He told journalists: “In no case should you make a hero out of me.” There were, he went on to say, no heroes in what had unfolded: “Two people who fought at the front collided. We let the situation slip from our hands and then we thought that it would resolve itself, but it did not.”

So worried was Lukashenko at the prospect of the conflict between Wagner and the Russian forces spilling into his own country that he ordered his military and police to be in a state of combat readiness. But, as Wagner forces moved to within 120 miles of Moscow, the government in Minsk issued a statement saying the Belarusian president had “an absolutely profitable and acceptable option for resolving the situation”.

The outcome has certainly been profitable for Lukashenko, with his fortunes now reversed. Three years ago he was on the brink of losing power himself. The largest protests in the country’s history erupted after he was declared the victor in a rigged election; there were rumours that the president might have to flee abroad.

Putin sent Russian police to help quash the protests, and then gave a $1.5bn (£1.2bn) soft loan to help Lukashenko’s regime in the face of Western sanctions.

In return, Lukashenko’s Belarus became, in effect, a vassal state of Russia, becoming the launchpad for Putin’s invasion in February 2022 along its 674-mile border with Ukraine. Russian tactical nuclear missiles have now been moved into the country.

Details have emerged of the role Belarus has played as a conduit in Russia’s abduction of Ukrainian children. The International Criminal Court has issued warrants for Putin in relation to this, and prosecutors in Kyiv are gathering evidence of at least three camps set up in Belarus for forcibly removed young boys and girls.

As the Russian offensive failed to capture Kyiv and carry out regime change – and then got pushed back – Lukashenko came under renewed attacks at home, and even more of an international pariah, with threats of further sanctions.

If Putin had fallen then, Lukashenko might not have been far behind. “Lukashenko’s regime would have crumbled immediately if Prigozhin had succeeded, so Lukashenko certainly had the motivation to stop what was going on”, said Franak Viacorka, a political adviser to Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.

Now the crisis has turned into an opportunity for Lukashenko. Belarusian media has gone into hyperdrive in praise. The president is the “peacemaker of Slavic civilisation”, the “supreme negotiator”. In Moscow, Kremlin spokesperson Peskov said: “We are grateful to the president of Belarus for all his efforts. He managed to resolve this situation without further losses, without increasing the level of tension.”

Prigozhin is said by Lukashenko to have arrived in Belarus. Mark Warner, the chair of the US Senate intelligence committee, claimed on NBC News that the Wagner boss was in “one of the only hotels in Minsk that does not have a window”.

Lukashenko, meanwhile, does not have to worry about defenestration for now. As he ponders his new-found stature from the grand presidential palace in Minsk, he must feel that he is sitting very pretty.